Heavy-asset, low-obsolescence businesses such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, Waste Management, Safran and GE Aerospace are where the next decade's wealth will be built, as AI turns code into a commodity. Their moats are physics, regulation and scarcity: pipelines, landfill permits and jet engine certification take permits, capital and decades to build, and cannot be replicated by a founder with a laptop and an API key. Software's asset-light story is over. x.com 

Health care and energy are among the best places to be in a midterm year, with AI keeping tech, industrials and utilities stronger than usual. Since 1994, health care has beaten the S&P 500 by nearly 17% on average in midterm years, averaging 10.7% versus energy's 8.9%. The playbook favors health care, energy, staples and utilities into the vote, then tech, industrials and growth names such as Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla and Amazon after it, with AI infrastructure the new post-midterm rotation. … Show more

Durable quality stocks should earn more with less risk because investors systematically overpay for lottery-like, volatile stocks. Haugen and Baker found that from 1990 to 2011 across 21 developed markets, the least volatile decile returned 8.7% a year while the most volatile lost 8.8%; in the US, 12% versus minus 7%. Goldman Sachs and BCA studies agree. Per Kahneman, people overweight improbable outcomes and underweight near-certain ones, leaving stable quality names underappreciated. x.com  … Show more

The Roundhill HALO ETF flips AI disruption risk by owning heavy-asset, low-obsolescence businesses. Its holdings rest on real assets, essential demand and cash flows that are here to stay. x.com 

AI bottleneck semiconductor stocks look to have gotten ahead of themselves, with roughly a hundred near-vertical charts where downside now seems to outweigh upside. They are semis and highly cyclical, and many smaller caps may end up trading like meme stocks. A substantial shakeout would offer a better entry. AI, robotics and energy still have years of growth ahead, but chasing these names now is not advisable. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

IREN and Hut 8 look like buying opportunities because they just locked in multi-billion-dollar contracts while the market keeps pushing them lower. That selloff is a gift, not a red flag. The AI infrastructure trade rests on a power shortage that has persisted for over a year, and more energy is needed. x.com 

Power demand will keep growing exponentially as AI models and data centers get larger, even after the AI hardware rotation slows, creating an AI power supercycle across four layers. Fuel: EQT, Kinder Morgan, Williams, Energy Transfer. Onsite power, the near-term bottleneck fix: Bloom Energy, GE Vernova, Caterpillar, Cummins, Kodiak Gas Services, T1 Energy. Grid: Eaton, Quanta, Vertiv, Hubbell, nVent, Emerson. Nuclear baseload: Oklo, NuScale, Nano Nuclear, Constellation, Vistra, BWX Technologies. … Show more

Big money is rotating out of overextended chips and AI plays, leaving semiconductor stocks that went straight up as exit liquidity for retail still piling in. The money is moving into software such as Accenture, Salesforce and ServiceNow, energy names Hawaiian Electric and Southern Company, and boring dividend stocks Whirlpool, Target and UPS. It is also flowing into China: Alibaba, JD.com, PDD, Baidu and Chinese internet stocks. x.com  x.com 

Berkshire Hathaway is a hedge for a tech-heavy portfolio against a tech correction, an oil shock or an inflation spike. It offers defensive exposure to insurance, energy and rails, a cash pile of over $350 billion that makes it an optionality machine, and a culture of discipline and compounding that should outlast Buffett. Possible bad surprises from the Iran conflict make that protection worth having during inevitable rotations. x.com 

Quality dividend stocks look like a great place to be over the next few years as the crowded tech trade unwinds. Per @PeterBerezinBCA, in the early dotcom bust tech crashed while the rest of the market rose, so the hedge for stocks was other stocks. A quality dividend basket holds old-economy, cash-generative businesses at sane multiples, while the index hides 50% of its weight in names at 10 times sales. That outweighs a general dislike of dividends as inefficient, taxable compounding. x.com  … Show more