Kairos
Stock Research
Memory stocks should do well, though they are businesses hated by their own customers, who are desperate for workarounds. Per @DeepSailCapital, hyperscalers are paying a memory tax and have a huge incentive to escape it through China's memory ramp, different designs or different models. x.com
This memory cycle may last longer because makers are deliberately scaling to keep demand well above supply and are locking in long-term agreements. Several memory CEOs have described plans to maintain that gap. Memory is still cyclical, but AI's need for large amounts of data could extend the cycle for Micron. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Memory stocks like Micron and SanDisk are not expensive because earnings and memory demand growth justify their prices. Jensen Huang recently said robotics will require 10x the memory; if true, they are historically cheap and do not trade at large premiums to recent earnings. They only look high if memory prices drop, which is possible but would create more demand, or if memory is truly cyclical. x.com
Memory stocks likely keep going higher unless HBM and NAND buyers further down the AI supply chain cannot pay for their contracts. Micron, Western Digital, Seagate, SanDisk, SK hynix and Samsung are not expensive on almost any multiple; the question is whether earnings continue. Buyers can raise prices, monetize in new ways or raise capital. The risk is strain: the Silicon Data LLM token index is down 17.2% since June 2 as users switch to cheaper models, which could ripple through the stack. … Show more
Memory makers face an inventory overhang because upcycle shipments moved stock to module makers, distributors and customers rather than clearing it. That transfer showed up in reported earnings. Prices have plunged since the October holiday; once expectations of further increases disappear and demand sentiment softens, high-priced inventory will surface and selling will be much faster than the earlier restocking. x.com x.com
China is not doing as well as many think, and its memory-production ramp is only potential. Micron, SK hynix and the DRAM ETF look insanely cheap. A quoted StockSavvyShay post reports Elon Musk's view that memory shortages will worsen in 2027, while Chinese LPDDR production might ramp in 2028 and HBM remains harder to scale. x.com
The memory cycle looks set to last longer than expected because Micron is spending as if AI memory demand will run for years. Its capex was $27.4B in FY26 and about $25B in FY27's first half alone, with the second half expected higher, putting $50B+ in play; Micron wouldn't spend this aggressively if it saw the cycle ending next year. AI is consuming huge amounts of DRAM, NAND and HBM, a shortage that also benefits SK hynix, Samsung, SanDisk, Western Digital and Seagate. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Memory makers' long-term agreements cannot protect pricing when buyers regain leverage. The market underestimates downside even before a price collapse; SK hynix's agreements price within market-linked ranges, per @jukan05. The agreements will be ripped apart when the market turns to buyers, at the latest when China ramps. SK hynix, Samsung, Micron, SanDisk and Kioxia are exposed. x.com
Micron and SanDisk are not a bearish call, but they will likely grind higher or move sideways rather than keep rising parabolically. Memory has shifted from being the AI bottleneck of the moment to part of the AI trade's beta, rising and falling with it. NVIDIA followed the same path despite equally strong bull arguments and its cheapest P/E ever, rising 20% this year versus 60% for semiconductors. A risk-on push that sent memory parabolic again would lift smaller bottleneck suppliers far more. … Show more
Memory stocks should work higher over time if they hit their numbers, after Micron put up a massive quarter and guidance. In the short term, market volatility or a post-earnings pullback could take over. The view covers Micron, SanDisk, Western Digital and Seagate. x.com
Memory stocks face huge downside because memory is a commodity, and today's undersupply will turn to oversupply as capex rises. Demand is inelastic, so suppliers have pricing power only while undersupplied; Samsung, SK hynix and Micron are all raising capex, and China's big DRAM expansion will ease shortages across the chain. Stocks peak before financials weaken, DRAM prices are already falling, and customers are optimizing memory use, so low P/Es offer no protection. x.com
Memory stocks such as Micron, SK hynix, SanDisk, Western Digital and Seagate are bullish long term, but forced selling as Korean leverage unwinds could keep pressure on for a few more weeks. Korean greed and leverage spilled into US memory stocks and then other semis. Capex cuts look unlikely, but the unwind takes time; crypto's deleveraging from October 10, 2025 took six weeks to find a real bottom. Mechanical selling can push already low P/Es much lower, so caution is warranted short term. … Show more
