Babyfolio
Software Engineer, AI Infrastructure Investor
Trio-Tech International's valuation provides a floor, which makes its risk/reward attractive. Its burn-in business is the lower-margin side, but demand is huge and Aehr will probably not be able to meet all of it, so basic supply and demand favors Trio-Tech. @unfadv's points on market size, Aehr's ability to add production and pricing power are what drive the valuation disconnect, similar to FuelCell Energy versus Bloom Energy. If Trio-Tech executes, its small market cap could easily 2-3x. x.com x.com x.com
Trio-Tech's gross margins are deteriorating because its testing revenue carries lower margins than its legacy segments. @yianisz counters that Trio-Tech still looks obvious and its margins will recover over the next 2-3 quarters. x.com x.com
Trio-Tech's business looks misaligned with what the market needs. It sells burn-in boards that customers can design out quite easily, and Aehr Test Systems could build a competing segment fairly quickly. It is also heavily concentrated in one customer, risky for such a small company; Aehr is concentrated too, but its customers keep coming back for more. x.com
Trio-Tech is a high-conviction, high-risk asymmetric bet on burn-in testing demand for AI chips. Q3 revenue rose 124% to $16.5 million, new orders of $5.3 million and $2.6 million cover burn-in boards for next-gen AI GPUs, and a $10 million raise funds a Malaysia facility. At about $160 million it trades far below peers, with trailing EPS now positive. Risks: gross margin fell to 16% from 27%, dilution, insider selling, a run from $2.45 to $21.38 then a sharp pullback, and thin liquidity. x.com
The Trade Desk is not cheap just because it is down 70%, since its business is deteriorating. Growth has slowed and margins have weakened for a couple of years, so a 70x forward multiple compressing toward 12–20x reflects lower expected growth, not a bargain. The market rewards earnings growth, revenue growth and improving cash flow, and dip buyers driven by recency bias are missing that. x.com x.com
inTest's first-quarter beat makes its selloff look overdone. EPS topped expectations by 77.8% and revenue rose 27%, and with the market booming, demand should carry it, even as a post the author replies to notes orders are slowing. x.com x.com x.com
Trio-Tech is a risky but compelling micro-cap sitting in the middle of a burn-in testing bottleneck. Growth is huge year over year, potential new customers include Micron, and CPU demand should soar in the inference era while Trio-Tech handles burn-in testing for AMD. Real estate is roughly 10% of its market cap, and the multiple looks ridiculous if execution continues. @JonkooTrades notes Zacks just initiated the first Wall Street coverage, at Neutral, citing AI burn-in orders. x.com
Trio-Tech's burn-in board orders keep accelerating because every AI GPU and CPU must pass burn-in testing before it ships. It announced another $2.6 million of orders for boards supporting a next-generation AI GPU platform, lifting this quarter's total above $5 million on top of $5.3 million in March. Last quarter's revenue rose 124% year over year, and a new 104,000 sq ft lease in Penang points to a multi-year ramp. Gross margins remain under pressure as it scales. x.com
Trio-Tech is an Aehr Test Systems in the making with far more room to re-rate, at a $200mn market cap versus Aehr's $2.5bn, and an easy 3-5x is expected within a year. Both test GaN and SiC power devices for hyperscaler builds, where Morgan Stanley puts the powered shell at $2-6bn per GW. Aehr burns in at the wafer level with hard-to-replicate IP; Trio-Tech does back-end burn-in and reliability testing, with revenue growth accelerating to 124%, though execution risk is higher. x.com
Burn-in test is one of three areas set to run hot into the summer, alongside CPU ecosystem names and power semis, driven by the Rubin ramp and the CPU production ramp. Trio-Tech and inTEST are among the undervalued names with immediate upside. inTEST has a third tailwind from the scale-up of power semis. Capital should shift from photonics and connectivity toward these areas. Barring a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure, other headwinds such as private credit shouldn't hit until Q3 or later. … Show more
Trio-Tech's burn-in board orders keep accelerating, with another order for next-generation boards, and it ranks among the highest-conviction micro-caps to hold long term. Per @ren_stocks, it has won over $5 million of burn-in board orders this quarter, including $2.6 million for a next-generation AI GPU platform, on top of $5.3 million in March. Every AI GPU and CPU must pass burn-in testing before shipping; last quarter revenue rose 124% and back-end solutions 141%. x.com