Venu
Position Trader, Market Leaders, Fundamental/Technical Analysis
Circle is one of the strongest names in crypto, with fundamentals inflecting as stablecoin adoption accelerates. USDC on-chain volume grew 151% year over year, and over the next three years revenue is expected to double while EPS nearly quadruples, from $1.04 to $3.92. After a nearly year-long base and a reclaim of its 200-day average, the stock is moving from Stage 1 into a Stage 2 uptrend. x.comÂ
Circle could be a leader in the coming months if the crypto bottom is real, as one of the best fundamental names in crypto. The stock has built a massive base for nearly a year and recently reclaimed its 200-day moving average. USDC onchain volume grew 151% year over year, and EPS is expected to nearly quadruple by 2029. x.com x.comÂ
Circle's new national trust bank charter strengthens its regulatory standing and oversight of USDC. The OCC approved Circle National Trust, placing it under direct federal oversight; it will offer fiduciary digital asset custody and is designed to eventually enable federally regulated management of the USDC reserve. It adds to Circle's BitLicense, EU MiCA compliance and other licenses, and CEO Jeremy Allaire called it a defining step in bringing digital assets into the core of US finance. x.comÂ
Circle is the crypto infrastructure play with real adoption, as the company behind the USDC stablecoin. x.comÂ
Circle is unlikely to win corporate treasuries, because companies holding mostly T-bills gain nothing by handing those assets to Circle so it can collect their yield. That answers @drGhostinOO7, who argues corporate treasuries are waiting to be tokenized and Circle can take market share from SWIFT. x.comÂ
Circle sits on the winning end of stablecoins crossing from crypto trading into global money movement, because it keeps the Treasury yield on USDC reserves while paying holders nothing. The stablecoin market grew over 50% in a year to above $310 billion, and USDC circulation rose 19% to $73.3 billion, yielding about $668 million a quarter of near-pure interest income. More adoption means a bigger balance sheet and higher interest profits, making Circle an interest-rate bet on digital cash. x.comÂ
Circle's USDC has a temporary EU go-to-market moat. The European Banking Authority gave USDC alone 'significant' stablecoin status among 45 e-money tokens under MiCA, adding a regulatory advantage to Circle's case as a sleeping giant. x.com x.comÂ
Circle's profits face growing pressure, and the market is starting to price that in. It earns most of its money from interest on USDC reserves, and Coinbase already takes about 50% of that revenue. USDC's $73 billion market cap trails Tether's $145 billion, and Open USD is adding pressure with zero minting fees and reserve income shared with over 140 partners. x.comÂ
Circle's real bull case is a 36-month story running through 2029, making it one of the highest-IRR opportunities in the market. The recent rally on the crypto breakout is secondary to that longer opportunity. x.comÂ
Circle looks coiled for expansion toward $170+ above $130 after eight months of sideways consolidation, backed by strong fundamentals. It has beaten EPS estimates four quarters in a row, with Q1 2026 revenue up 20% and EPS 40% above estimates. USDC circulation is $77 billion, up 28%, and it processed $21.5 trillion of onchain volume in Q1, up 263%. With a conditionally approved national trust bank charter and the GENIUS Act now law, it is the most compliant, regulation-ready stablecoin issuer. … Show more
Circle's long-term multi-bagger thesis, that USDC becomes a key part of next-generation payment rails, no longer looks on track. In just the past few days, 140 entities, including many major names, partnered with OUSD, and Robinhood announced a 7% yield program via USDG. Circle can still be a successful business, and its fall to the targeted ~$64 entry level looks justified by fundamentals, so the 'Circle is poised to dominate' case is crumbling. x.comÂ
Circle still benefits from the large stablecoin trend and USDC's utility for businesses and users, so early AI-agent cash recommendations are no reason to turn bearish. Mizuho cut its target to $43 and sees a 10-20% reserve-revenue hit after sampled agents favored insured, higher-yield options over USDC. Few people let agents manage their money, and those who do are not a large share of USDC holders. Agent-only stablecoin payments may be overhyped. x.comÂ
