Gublo
Small/Mid-Cap Trader, Multibagger/Penny Stocks, Earnings Analysis & Signals
PayPal's growth has stalled and it faces too much fintech competition. That view could change if the company adapts, pivots and proves otherwise. x.comÂ
PayPal's problem is deeply rooted poor management and a complete lack of ambition; it could have made a dozen moves over the years to expand and grow. Stripe appears to be the only buyer willing to take it on. x.com x.comÂ
PayPal's raised earnings and free-cash-flow guidance supports rejecting Stripe and Advent's $60.50-per-share offer. The shares now trade around $57, below the rejected bid, but that does not make the rejection a mistake. x.comÂ
PayPal's near-flat growth and rising checkout competition leave it a Grade C, prove-it story. Q3 FY26 revenue rose just 2%; operating income fell 8% as restructuring charges rose from $69 million to $255 million, and net income fell 14%. The business still earns over $1 billion a quarter, but it is treading water. x.comÂ
PayPal's cost cuts and reserve releases prop up short-term numbers, while investing for growth wastes time. Its slow bleed gives delusional bulls hope, making it the ultimate value trap; it should not be a public company. x.comÂ
PayPal is worth much more than Stripe's reported $53 billion takeover offer, and its board reportedly rejected the bid as inadequate. PayPal makes over $5 billion a year and is growing, buys back about 7% of its shares annually, and traded at just 9x earnings before the news and 11x the offer. $75 a share should be the bare minimum, and a bidding war may follow. x.comÂ
PayPal's weak product was enough to show it was a poor investment; simply trying to use it made that clear. x.comÂ
PayPal is still growing, but the quality of its growth keeps worsening, which justifies a compressed multiple. Revenue rose 7% and TPV 11%, yet transaction margin dollars grew only 3%, operating income fell and GAAP EPS dropped 6% as operating margin shrank about 200 basis points. That points to Stripe, Adyen, Apple and Google eroding pricing power. Engagement is flattening, and guidance for falling near-term EPS signals a trend. At 10x earnings it is a fair business, not a great one. x.com … Show more
PayPal was already stupid cheap and now has a partnership with Meta's Muse, yet its stock hasn't moved. Per a quoted post, Shopify rose 15% in two days on its own Muse partnership, since agentic AI could make discoverability easier. x.comÂ
PayPal is a low-switching-cost, low-moat business headed for secular decline as payment fees race to the bottom. In 2021 it wanted to buy Pinterest for $45B; now Stripe reportedly wants to buy it for $53B. Stripe is probably the best suitor by far, as a good tuck-in acquisition. x.com x.comÂ