AppLovin's ad yield engine has run out of gas, setting up the same structural decay that hit The Trade Desk as ad spend consolidates into walled gardens. Conversion rates stalling around 1.4%, delayed AI rollouts and mounting litigation point to a fundamental tailspin that Piper Sandler's cautious call understates. Being down 60% this year is not a bottom; buying here is catching a falling knife on a broken narrative. x.com 

AppLovin needs a very clean quarter to rebuild confidence. Investors question how much market-share runway its gaming ad business has left and how sustainable its very high margins are, and last quarter's model-upgrade cadence issues raised new execution concerns. Gaming ads must remain the central growth engine, since e-commerce will not be big enough for a while. x.com  x.com 

Entravision is nearing a valuation worth loving as emotional traders sell an already hated stock and AppLovin adds to the fear. At this lower price, its valuation is becoming undeniably more interesting. x.com 

The Trade Desk is not cheap just because it is down 70%, since its business is deteriorating. Growth has slowed and margins have weakened for a couple of years, so a 70x forward multiple compressing toward 12–20x reflects lower expected growth, not a bargain. The market rewards earnings growth, revenue growth and improving cash flow, and dip buyers driven by recency bias are missing that. x.com  x.com 

The Trade Desk is vulnerable because Amazon has a comparable ad platform and a habit of ruthlessly eating competitors, a bigger concern than AI disruption. Its gross profit versus opex picture looks far weaker than AppLovin's, so its trajectory inspires much less confidence. x.com 

Entravision's 47 TV stations hold spectrum that could be worth $0.6-$1B, which SpaceX will almost certainly need. In the 2017 FCC auction it got $260M for just four stations at about $1 per MHz-POP, and Sinclair's CEO thinks that spectrum is now worth $2.5. Its TV spectrum also reaches indoors far better than the EchoStar spectrum SpaceX now uses for direct-to-phone service. Q2 ad revenue rose 260%, though guidance for a sequential Q3 decline on ad-customer variability hit the shares. x.com  … Show more

AppLovin is probably stuck for a while after falling more than 50% this year, partly penalized unfairly for The Trade Desk's fall as a fellow black-box ad-tech name. Too few holders understood the business on the way up, which makes the way down painful. It may become a good long in 2027, pending more work on valuation. x.com 

The Trade Desk will only bottom once it is removed from the S&P 500, because its problems are now structural and will linger. Management issues are everywhere, it failed to use the agentic AI wave as Zeta has and let a profitable model slide into negative operating leverage, and many customers seem angry. A ship this messy cannot be turned around quickly. x.com  x.com 

The Trade Desk is a deflating, Ponzi-like former high flyer, with revenue growth slowing every quarter while costs explode. Growth decelerated from 25% to 19%, 18%, 14% and 12% over the past year, and the Q2 guide implies just 8%. The stock traded at 30x revenue only 18 months ago. x.com 

Magnite's position in the ad-tech ecosystem looks to be consolidating, and the stock remains cheap, though less so at current prices than from lower levels. Per @MinotaurStocks, partnership momentum and 25-30% CTV growth position it as a potential successor to The Trade Desk on the open web, at a $2 billion market cap versus $9 billion. Risks to weigh are the CFO's departure, non-trivial insider selling and AI threats to its business outside CTV. x.com