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Kairos

Stock Research

16 Oct, 18:31Latest

Semtech's analyst-day growth outlook makes the stock look cheap if guidance holds. Management guided to $3.2B FY30 revenue at 38% CAGR and estimated 70% gross and 48-50% operating margins. Backlog alone underpins more than doubling datacenter revenue in FY27 and FY28, versus the 80% and 70% previously modeled; LoRa's 30% CAGR tops the prior 20% assumption. Later forecasts are more conservative, so growth could beat 38%. At 25x FY30 earnings (January 2030), the stock should trade at $320. x.com x.com

SMTC

4 Oct, 15:25

Semtech looks very bullish as active copper cables become very popular at higher speeds. An industry panel teased Semtech equalizers in Foxconn's 336G and 448G cables, and Semtech's CEO said limited EML capacity at 400G will push silicon photonics instead. Coherent-lite optics for linking campuses could reach 10x today's volume, a scale-across opportunity the market is missing. Foxconn's own 800G and 1.6T transceivers add competition. x.com

SMTC

Schulz Duggan

AI Supply-Chain Research, Optics/Memory/Macro, Original Asian/US Filings & Pricing

19 Oct

SMTC

Semtech's high-power lasers offer upside because its fiscal 2030 target counts only a very moderate contribution from them. Management says data-center revenue will more than double this year and next on backlog; it plans to grow laser capacity three to four times by year-end as demand exceeds supply. Around $140, shares trade near 11 times Semtech's $12.40-$13 fiscal 2030 adjusted EPS target. Qualification and shipments must make the laser ramp credible in fiscal 2029-30. x.com x.com

VenkatP

Physician, Growth & Value Stock Investor

19 Sep

SMTC

Semtech is put forward as a stock to own. x.com

KawzInvests

Co-Author of Asymmetrical Bets, Photonics/Optical Cycle, AI/Defense/Space

25 Aug

SMTC

Semtech's valuation already assumes strong execution, so the stock needs growth to keep pace with a fast-expanding optical market. It is one of the few names with real products across all three AI networking layers, from scale-up copper to scale-out optics chips and, via the HieFo laser deal, scale-across. FY26 data center revenue rose 58% to $223M, with over 50% growth guided for FY27. BofA sees the optical market growing from $14B in 2025 to $73B by 2030, a pace that would ease the multiple. … Show more

GrowthTurtle

Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma

5 Sep

SMTC

Semtech looks cheap against its earnings, trading at 25x forward earnings when chipmakers usually get 38x. Applying 38x to next year's $5.84 EPS estimate, give or take 12%, puts fair value at $195.14 to $248.36, leaving the stock 24% below where fair value starts. The case leans on the forecast, since the forward earnings read is 397% above the trailing one, and it is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates with no fundamental work. x.com

Mitchell Martan

Investment Researcher for The Long Investor, Economics/Finance Background

1 Oct

SMTC

Semtech should lead semiconductors higher once yields eventually behave, and $250 within six months would be no surprise. It is resting on support at its previous all-time highs and is no longer screaming cheap, worth about $210, but it has been extremely strong. Management gave incredible visibility into 2027, so the story is somewhat derisked and now comes down to execution. x.com x.com

StreetSignal

Market Research Newsletter, News Verification

26 May

SMTC

Semtech does not deserve its status as a hot optical stock, since it is mostly a low-quality analog business with only a couple of data center parts. The move has been striking, though being wrong is possible. x.com

Joe

Full-Time Trader/Investor, Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Inflection Points

26 Aug

SMTC

Semtech's damn impressive beat and guidance support an easy 50% upside into early next year. Small-cap semiconductors are unlikely to approach all-time highs by mid-September, though. x.com x.com

Mitchell Martan

Investment Researcher for The Long Investor, Economics/Finance Background

26 Oct

CLS

Celestica's strong quarter and above-estimate 2026 revenue guide make its stock deserve to be much higher. Revenue was $5.83B versus $5.46B expected, adjusted EPS $3.30 versus $2.97, and 2026 revenue guidance $21B versus $20.61B. The stock is going to $400, though it might take time. Its investment-grade customers make heavy customer concentration less concerning. x.com x.com x.com x.com

Say No To Trading

Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management

2 Apr

SMTC

Semtech is not an attractive holding because of its historic cyclicality, unless the business has materially changed. x.com

CK Capital

Defense/Space/Tech/Photonics Investor, Co-Owner of CV Research

27 Aug

SMTC

Semtech is gaining share in a growing market, with content per unit about to jump and a higher-margin business left after its divestiture. FiberEdge's 800G share rose from 18% to over 50% as transceiver units roughly tripled, and it expects over 50% of 1.6T this year. Content per transceiver rises from high single digits to $80-90 as the industry moves to 3.2T in 18-24 months. Gross margin should start at 64% after the cellular module sale, versus 53% two quarters ago. x.com

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