Moody
Equity Investor, Semiconductor Research
UP Fintech is clearly mispriced: at about 4.3 times EV to owner free cash flow, the market prices in zero growth after an outstanding 2025. Revenue rose 56% to $612 million, net income jumped 181% to $171 million for a 28% margin, and cash doubled to $793 million. A risk is that management holds net cash near 60% of enterprise value without a clear capital allocation plan. x.com x.comÂ
UP Fintech's business is holding up despite regulatory pressure, and its stock is reclaiming its downtrend for the first time since February. Q1 revenue rose 26.3% to $154.9M even as China's CSRC imposed a roughly $59.7M penalty that sent shares down as much as 28%, and the board responded with a $50M buyback. Holding above the reclaimed descending trendline points to $6, about 20% upside; losing it means chop back into $4.50-5.00. x.comÂ
UP Fintech is cheap, and online brokerage is a business model that works well worldwide and continues to enjoy tailwinds. x.comÂ
Upstart has no AI underwriting moat; it is simply winning fewer personal-loan customers in a higher-rate environment while spending heavily. Originations rose 61% to $3.4 billion on auto (+300%) and home (+250%) with personal loans flat, but it returned to a GAAP net loss as contribution margin fell to 50% from 55% and operating expenses rose 45% to about $316 million. If the 10-year stays above 4.4%, a 55x P/E faces brutal valuation gravity, though hitting the $294M EBITDA guide would help. … Show more
