Daniel Romero
Technology Equity Analyst, Semiconductors/Data Centers/Physical AI
AI agents are a blessing for NAND prices, which kept rising instead of peaking in Q3 2026 as expected, favoring Micron, Samsung and SK hynix. Hyperscalers' enterprise SSD demand is nearly double earlier forecasts, and their NAND inventories were about 14 weeks in July, below the normal 15, and expected to fall further. Agents repeatedly retrieve and generate data, pushing cloud providers toward high-capacity QLC SSDs, and KV-cache offloading adds storage demand. x.com
Micron and SK hynix pricing in a memory shortage past 2030 extends the memory-cycle case beyond the Street's 2028 expectation. SK hynix's record quarter adds evidence: per Wall St Engine, revenue rose 328% to $78.9B, operating profit rose 632% to $62.8B, and operating margin hit 80%. Agentic and physical AI could add demand as they roll out. x.com x.com
Micron, SanDisk and SK Hynix look very bullish because Samsung says the memory shortage will worsen in 2027. x.com
Memory makers' long-term agreements cannot protect pricing when buyers regain leverage. The market underestimates downside even before a price collapse; SK hynix's agreements price within market-linked ranges, per @jukan05. The agreements will be ripped apart when the market turns to buyers, at the latest when China ramps. SK hynix, Samsung, Micron, SanDisk and Kioxia are exposed. x.com
SK hynix's strong pricing and secured capacity could push memory stocks higher. Per Wall St Engine, its Q3 DRAM ASP rose by a high-20s percentage quarter over quarter, while long-term agreements cover more than half of its 2027-28 capacity. Those figures support the memory upcycle. x.com
More memory CapEx may yield proportionally fewer bits as HBM consumes more wafer capacity, supporting SK hynix and Samsung's pricing. Both reported double-digit quarterly DRAM and NAND price gains; Samsung targets 60-70% of mid- to long-term capacity under LTAs. SK hynix has the stronger execution record, but Samsung could benefit enormously from conventional memory without winning HBM4. If trends persist, normalized margins could rise, though memory remains cyclical. x.com
SK hynix and other Korean memory makers' aggressive price hikes invite customers to optimize memory use, undermining the case for 90% margins despite a long-term shortage. Memory is the only layer raising cost per token. Elon Musk described Micron's future pricing as reasonable and other suppliers' as extortionate, warning that today's customers would not forget; exorbitant long-term contracts compound that risk. x.com x.com
SK hynix's surging earnings challenge the idea that commodity memory profits are about to vanish. The attached report says third-quarter operating profit rose more than sevenfold and its operating margin reached 80%; analysts quoted there expect the earnings climb to continue at least through next year. Micron and Samsung are named alongside SK hynix. x.com
Tight memory-chip supply through 2030 is good for Micron. SK hynix expects the shortage to last that long and reports a 632% profit jump. x.com
Inflation, rising rates, Chinese competition and rising AI-related financial costs are pressuring the memory market. Micron, Samsung and SK hynix look exposed; waiting for the cycle to turn. x.com x.com
A four-year memory supply shortage could make low forward earnings multiples compelling if long-term agreements hold. At forward P/Es of 3.5 for Samsung, 5 for Micron and 3.1 for SK hynix, the sub-4 names could return roughly 100% over four years and still retain value even if margins subsequently compress sharply. x.com x.com