PhotonBull
Equity Researcher, Co-Runner of Retail Club
AEVEX remains attractive after strong first-quarter results now that the stock has cooled off from the IPO hype. Per @AlmaCap114204, Q1 revenue rose 307% to $216.7 million, net income was $21.0 million versus a $27.3 million loss a year earlier, and full-year 2026 guidance calls for $600-620 million in revenue and $88-94.5 million of adjusted EBITDA. x.comÂ
AEVEX is one of the only companies offering frontline drone manufacturing, key now that Iran and Ukraine show mass drone production is central to modern battle. Its deployable system builds unmanned platforms where they are needed. If Trump does not extend the Iran ceasefire, which he called highly unlikely per @DeItaone, a lot of drones will be needed. Undervalued versus peers with a very low float, it is a no-brainer. Per @YoYInvestor, nearly all revenue is tied to Ukraine, a fair risk. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
AEVEX Aerospace is a far more reasonably priced way into defense. @michaelsikand calls it a $3.6B Anduril competitor that shipped 10K drones to Ukraine, guides to $800M of 2026 revenue, beat Anduril on an Army program and is valued over $1B below Ondas despite 5x the forward revenue. Execution will be judged quarter by quarter. Risks are competition, lumpy contract-based growth and margins that may barely expand. x.comÂ
AEVEX Aerospace actually manufactures drones at scale, while Ondas mostly issues shares, making AEVEX the far better long. AEVEX did $432.9M of 2025 revenue to Ondas's $50.7M at 72% of the market cap, with $503M of funded backlog toward an $800M 2026 guide and 1,000 drones a month from Tampa. Ondas lacks a consolidated US factory, its share count went from 49M to 482M in three years, and it trades at 23-28x forward sales versus AEVEX's 4.5x. AEVEX's October lockup expiry is worth trimming into. … Show more
AEVEX's management and private-equity owners diluted IPO buyers right after the roadshow, and holders are still heading for the exits even on a big up day for drones. A quoted post says management either badly misjudged its cash needs six weeks ago or got poor advice from its bankers, or both, to return for a dilutive offering so soon after the IPO. x.comÂ
