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Pythia Cap

Equity Investing & Market Satire

7 Aug, 17:06Latest

Memory has shifted from a stock that goes up every day to one that probably does fine over 12 months, a longer horizon that needs a new shareholder base. Demand may exceed supply for a long time, prices may hold and buyers may grow less cyclical as hyperscalers replace consumers, adding price, volume and a possible re-rate. But cyclical industries promising discipline have blown up every time, and chop is likely before capital returns, so semicap, with ASML cheap versus peers, is preferred. x.com x.com x.com

DRAM

28 Jul, 20:42

Memory makers such as SK hynix and Kioxia are unlikely to pass their huge earnings to shareholders, because memory has historically spent about 100% of operating cash flow on capex through the cycle. Much of the cash will go to employees and chip-equipment makers, and capex numbers should keep rising. That, plus fears the earnings are a bubble, is why they trade at 4x earnings; claims they can earn their market cap in a year often end with shareholders seeing nothing. This time may be different. x.com x.com x.com

DRAM

Oliver | MMMT Wealth

Founder of MMMT Wealth, CPA, Technical/Fundamental Analysis

29 Oct

000660.KS

005930.KS

AI's physical buildout looks set to last to 2030 and beyond because financing, memory supply and hyperscaler spending still point to sustained demand. Nebius has $3.5B in financing, IREN $2.4B at 9% and SPCX $40B for GPU equipment. SK hynix expects shortages through at least 2030 and Samsung says HBM4 is sold out; memory companies are making money with no sign of slowing. Google expects 2027 capex to rise significantly. Pullbacks can happen; be cautious and buy quality. x.com

The Few Bets That Matter

Concentrated Equity Investor, AI Infrastructure

28 Oct

000660.KS

Deployment limits will slow AI hardware spending and expose cyclical suppliers such as SK hynix. Amazon has hardware waiting for power, and Broadcom's CEO said some clients delayed shipments because they could not deploy. Cheap forward multiples can mark a cyclical peak as analysts extrapolate growth. The slowdown could have begun or be a year away; timing is uncertain, so reducing cyclical risk in favor of healthier, genuinely cheap names looks better. x.com x.com x.com

Noah

Stock Investor & Trader, US Equities

11 Jul

SNDK

DRAM

Memory stocks are at the peak of the cycle, and FOMO buying into Micron and SanDisk now could be one of the dumbest moves. Chinese factories are coming online at lightning speed, which is why Micron is signing multi-year deals, and pricing power is peaking right now. The market is forward-looking, so a low forward P/E matters little if net income drops 60-90% a few years out. Per Kalshi, the memory ETF just passed $25 billion in assets for the first time. x.com x.com x.com

Fede Sandler

Former IRO at Mercado Libre/Nubank, Forbes Columnist

28 Oct

000660.KS

Memory remains structurally scarce because SK hynix says conventional DRAM and HBM are practically sold out through 2029, while customers request roughly twice the HBM volume it can produce. Long-term agreements cover more than half of 2027 and 2028 capacity, and the company expects the supply-demand imbalance to persist through 2030. x.com x.com

Gublo

Small/Mid-Cap Trader, Multibagger/Penny Stocks, Earnings Analysis & Signals

27 Oct

000660.KS

SK hynix's strong pricing and secured capacity could push memory stocks higher. Per Wall St Engine, its Q3 DRAM ASP rose by a high-20s percentage quarter over quarter, while long-term agreements cover more than half of its 2027-28 capacity. Those figures support the memory upcycle. x.com

Herman Jin

Formerly in Asia FICC at Goldman Sachs, Macro & Semiconductor Investing

28 Oct

SMH

Semiconductors could capture scarce spot compute's value if its forward curve holds. Compute trades in deep contango, while chip stocks price in little of that value; near-term moves are unpredictable. That makes the sector very bullish. The earlier lab-funding risk looks less acute: Anthropic should hold nearly $200B cash after its IPO and is operating-cash-flow profitable. Even with 2029 capex cuts, chips look cheap if future buyers do not default. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com

Feroce Research

Thematic Research, Technical/Macro/Fundamental Analysis & Quantitative Positioning

27 Oct

000660.KS

Micron and SK hynix pricing in a memory shortage past 2030 extends the memory-cycle case beyond the Street's 2028 expectation. SK hynix's record quarter adds evidence: per Wall St Engine, revenue rose 328% to $78.9B, operating profit rose 632% to $62.8B, and operating margin hit 80%. Agentic and physical AI could add demand as they roll out. x.com x.com

Joe

Full-Time Trader/Investor, Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Inflection Points

17 Jul

SNDK

WDC

STX

DRAM

SKHY

Memory stocks such as Micron, SK hynix, SanDisk, Western Digital and Seagate are bullish long term, but forced selling as Korean leverage unwinds could keep pressure on for a few more weeks. Korean greed and leverage spilled into US memory stocks and then other semis. Capex cuts look unlikely, but the unwind takes time; crypto's deleveraging from October 10, 2025 took six weeks to find a real bottom. Mechanical selling can push already low P/Es much lower, so caution is warranted short term. … Show more

Leandro

Equity Analyst at Best Anchor Stocks

27 Jun

000660.KS

005930.KS

Memory makers' pricing power looks unsustainable because betting on a long-term bottleneck is betting against human ingenuity. Memory players are squeezing customers in a way ASML and TSMC historically chose not to; Micron may have the right to get back at Apple, but that hurts long-term relationships, and disregarding the non-AI business could come back to bite. Even if inference demand drives memory prices, as @bnemethbrown argues, whether regular DRAM gets commoditized is still open. x.com … Show more

Steve Hou

Head of Research at Silicon Data, AI Compute Markets

9 Aug

SNDK

Micron and SanDisk are not a bearish call, but they will likely grind higher or move sideways rather than keep rising parabolically. Memory has shifted from being the AI bottleneck of the moment to part of the AI trade's beta, rising and falling with it. NVIDIA followed the same path despite equally strong bull arguments and its cheapest P/E ever, rising 20% this year versus 60% for semiconductors. A risk-on push that sent memory parabolic again would lift smaller bottleneck suppliers far more. … Show more

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