PhotonBull
Equity Researcher, Co-Runner of Retail Club
Hims & Hers looks cheap, and the peptides story is big enough for the stock to outperform the market in the near to mid term if nothing bad happens. High short interest and sentiment make a compelling entry, and the company impressively resolved its Novo Nordisk lawsuit and now works with it. Management is a drawback, and competition from Amazon is worrying but not a dealbreaker, since some people may avoid big corporations with their health data. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers looks good on paper, but past revenue growth does not guarantee future growth and margins are falling, which is very bad. Its peptides story could rerate the stock if executed, but it brings another regulatory overhang: peptides will be in regulation headlines every day and the stock will trade on them. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers is executing poorly despite its potential, and its appeal as a retail darling is fading after a rough first quarter. Per @himshouse, revenue was $608 million versus $617 million expected, EPS was -$0.40 versus $0.03 expected, and gross margin fell to 65% from 73% a year earlier, while subscribers grew 9% to 2.584 million. CEO Andrew Dudum can do better. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers' peptide capabilities may be underappreciated, setting up a strong bounce after peptide news. Per @riyadosofian, it is the only telehealth company with a peptide facility and global distribution system. A strong bounce is expected now as the stock holds outside its wedge. x.com x.comÂ
Hims & Hers suffers from bad management, and government pressure is squeezing its pharma margins. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers is a meme stock, not a fundamental story, after missing EPS by 1,440%, with earnings down 300% year over year and 600% quarter over quarter. The company pays influencers to pump the stock, and even a move to $200 would not change that view. x.com x.comÂ
Hims & Hers is a sentiment-driven stock, and peptide enthusiasm should return as actual peptide revenue gets closer. The peptide excitement has faded as expected, leaving shares around $27, an attractive fundamental setup. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers' peptide business looks undifferentiated with relatively low barriers to entry, since nothing about providing peptides appears proprietary. Its edge would have to be scale and distribution, and it is not clear it is far ahead of other telehealth companies there. @JonahLupton notes Barron's said Hims could own 20% of the peptide market. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers is not a $100 stock yet, because growth is slowing and there is no new driver on the scale of GLP-1. Customer acquisition and conversion are slowing and average spend per user is declining, which quarter-over-quarter figures show better than the 40%+ year-over-year narrative. Guidance was narrowed and comparisons get harder. Investing on past strong growth is looking backward. Hims is a great company, but the stock will take time to reach new highs. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers' newly previewed Peptides+ offering could add a growth vertical to its healthcare platform. Management plans access to sermorelin, glutathione and NAD+; recent regulatory developments may also open a path for BPC-157 and TB-500, subject to further conditions. Rollout and commercial opportunity remain unproven, and margins and execution are still risks. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers isn't worth owning because of its management: a leader who can pump and then dump the stock is not a trustworthy type. Zeta Global is the preferable alternative. x.comÂ