Moody
Equity Investor, Semiconductor Research
MercadoLibre is a no-brainer long-term buy at current prices because the market's fixation on AI infrastructure has drained capital from proven businesses, leaving them at bargain valuations. It has an almost unassailable competitive position that AI will not replace, and AI should lift its margins through logistics and operational efficiency. New technologies eventually commoditize, so a deep moat is what matters, and long-term investors can profit from the mispricing. x.com x.comÂ
MercadoLibre's commerce and fintech revenue growth underpins the view that its shares are undervalued at current prices. The attached chart shows quarterly commerce services revenue reaching $4.3 billion and fintech revenue $4.4 billion in June 2026, up from $769 million and $467 million in March 2021. x.comÂ
Today's fundamentals and long growth runways make Nu Holdings and MercadoLibre among the market's most compelling and mispriced opportunities for patient capital. Their short-term outlook shifts mostly with FX volatility and fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty. x.comÂ
Political uncertainty and Amazon competition have held MercadoLibre's stock back despite a humming business. The company is great and the stock deserves to turn, but at roughly 45 times earnings and only about 12% gained over five years, it has remained a difficult stock to own. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
MercadoLibre's long-term thesis looks intact: heavy reinvestment is holding down near-term margins, but if it drives continued growth and eventually operating leverage, margins and earnings could expand substantially. The stock was extremely expensive five years ago, and its valuation has compressed significantly since. As with Amazon, the market doesn't trust the spending yet, but Meta showed how fast that can change. x.com x.comÂ
MercadoLibre is worth owning for 20 years because its marketplace, payments, credit and advertising reinforce one another, with a long reinvestment runway in underpenetrated Latin American e-commerce and digital finance. Quarterly revenue grew 50% despite its scale, making about 40x earnings very reasonable for its quality. A deep management bench under CEO Ariel Szarfsztejn reduces founder dependence. Risks include credit underwriting, competition from Sea and Amazon, currencies and regulation. … Show more
MercadoLibre's collapsing margins and earnings make its 45-times-earnings valuation look like a value trap. It faces intense competition, and less of its revenue reaches the bottom line; falling earnings make the stock more expensive even as its price falls. Nu Holdings trades at 17 times earnings and Inter & Co at 7 times, with both growing revenue and earnings robustly. Selling MercadoLibre to build positions in companies with better fundamentals is under consideration. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Latin American equities' sell-off looks overdone as long as the underlying businesses keep growing and fundamentals remain intact. Under that condition, the drop is market noise, and MercadoLibre and Nu Holdings could offer attractive opportunities amid the panic. x.comÂ
MercadoLibre is Amazon, PayPal, FedEx and a bank in one, building Latin America's digital infrastructure in early innings with a full-stack data moat no rival has matched across 18 countries. Mercado Pago processes $87B a quarter, two-thirds outside the marketplace, and banking licenses cut out middlemen; logistics delivers 80% of goods within 48 hours and credit defaults run near half the industry rate. Q1 revenue grew 49% to $8.85B. Margin pressure from heavy investment is the trade-off. x.comÂ
MercadoLibre is a broken stock without a catalyst, and being cheap is not enough to recover. Since AI arrived it has badly underperformed, and no one knows whether AI agents buying from the cheapest source will bypass marketplaces within two or three years. Many holders still call it an obvious bargain, as they did near $1,900, a sign they have not capitulated; real bottoms come with exhaustion and disbelief. A turnaround, new information or an earnings change would be needed to change that. … Show more
MercadoLibre's falling margins reflect deliberately deferred profit, the Nick Sleep playbook at Amazon and Costco, two decades earlier in its arc. Revenue grew from $28 million in 2005 to $28.9 billion in 2025, a 39.8% CAGR, while operating margin slipped from a 15% peak to 11% as it poured money into fulfillment and free shipping. The market read the margins and sold; the real question is what the business is becoming. Its story scores 91.3, but a 24.6 chart score has yet to confirm it. x.com … Show more
