Prepared Remarks
Equity Investor, Macro Commentary
CrowdStrike, Palantir and Datadog trade on multiples even sillier than application SaaS multiples were at their lows, set by the same investors who control both groups. Application SaaS turned out to be a long. The sell side is likely to raise targets circularly, citing low-end multiples to justify premiums for names like Datadog and the discount to infrastructure to lift app-software targets. x.com x.comÂ
CrowdStrike is insanely expensive for its growth, at a multiple of 38 now and 30 forward. Datadog, at 24 now and 18 forward, is not cheap but not crazy by comparison. x.comÂ
Combining estimated NTM revenue growth with trailing GAAP EBITDA margin makes Palo Alto Networks, Datadog, JFrog, Rubrik and Snowflake look overvalued against forward EV/sales. Zoom, Alphabet, Oracle, AppLovin, Microsoft, Fair Isaac, Adobe, Amazon and Teradata remain undervalued on this Rule of 40 comparison; Palantir, Cloudflare and CrowdStrike remain overvalued. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike may distinguish itself from an expensive cybersecurity group by showing more breakneck growth at earnings next month. Fortinet's slowing product revenue exposed how much relentless execution investors had priced into the group's extreme multiples, pulling CrowdStrike down in sympathy. CrowdStrike remains in a higher tier than Fortinet, which itself ranks above SentinelOne. x.com x.comÂ
CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks need 50%-plus growth to deliver even a 10% IRR over a realistic horizon, but almost no conceivable case gets them there. They feel as dumb as Zoom and Peloton in 2021. Even if revenue doubles over four to five years, Palo Alto would still trade at 10x revenue and CrowdStrike at 20x, leaving little prospect of a real IRR; Palo Alto is growing in the teens today. x.com x.com x.comÂ
CrowdStrike at 40x forward sales is hard to take seriously as a best idea into 2027. x.comÂ
Datadog is one of the best-run software companies, spending more on R&D and much less on sales and administration than peers while still growing 36% recently. Rubrik and Snowflake spend massively on SG&A, and Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike are no better. x.com x.comÂ
Palantir, CrowdStrike and Cloudflare are top-tier companies, but their valuations may have reached bubble territory, a reason to book profits on long-term holds. Their combined market cap has grown from about $90B to $840B, and their P/E and P/S multiples price in much future growth. CrowdStrike and Cloudflare in particular trade on hopes that the agentic era, with bots charged for access and usage-based AI pricing, will make revenue explode. Trimming Cloudflare and CrowdStrike has started. … Show more
CrowdStrike's growth is too slow to justify its valuation. Its forward P/E has climbed to about 190, while stock-based compensation exceeds operating earnings, so reported free cash flow margins do not show what the business actually earns. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Zeta Global, ServiceNow, Datadog and CrowdStrike look increasingly attractive among software names as AI disrupts applications: businesses with proprietary data that build on AI and deliver intelligence and measurable outcomes could win. Cybersecurity valuations remain a concern. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike's 45x sales multiple on mid-20% revenue growth only works if multiple expansion continues in perpetuity, which no long holder can count on. x.comÂ
