Gublo
Small/Mid-Cap Trader, Multibagger/Penny Stocks, Earnings Analysis & Signals
Pagaya is still a credit business with a questionable moat, even if execution is good. There are too many world-class businesses out there to spend time convincing yourself an average one is exceptional; a proprietary model and a P/E of 4 do not make a wide moat. x.com x.comÂ
Pagaya, Upstart and Root are money-losing companies, not a rebound story. They pay no dividends, so their yield is zero, and any comparison with the 2021 SPAC-peak mania is not a long-term trend. This rebuts a post the author replies to, which argued these fintechs show steady quarter-over-quarter EPS growth on sustainable revenue, trade at 10-year lows with rising dividend yields, and could 2x or 3x. x.comÂ
Pagaya may be one of the most misunderstood AI stocks: an AI-powered lending network still priced like a broken fintech. It trades at a single-digit P/E while turning profitable and scaling margins. It is high risk and high beta, with potentially asymmetric upside. x.comÂ
Pagaya's strong quarter is rightly being ignored by the market, because Treasury yields are threatening to break out, which means more credit risk. @ThothCapital, in the post being answered, highlights a huge revenue beat, net income at the high end of guidance and raised guidance for revenue, adjusted EBITDA and net income. x.comÂ
Micron looks ridiculously cheap at a 2026 PEG of 0.02 despite its big run. Revenue is expected to grow 32% a year over the next three years, though most of that comes this year and next. If 2028 estimates prove too low, this is a great buying opportunity. x.comÂ
Pagaya's AI credit-decisioning infrastructure, which connects lenders with borrowers more efficiently, looks underpriced by a market still figuring it out. Revenue has compounded at roughly 20%+ for years with steady quarterly growth and further acceleration expected. Banks want better underwriting and consumers want credit access, and Pagaya sits in the middle, so the model scales if it executes on expanding partnerships. It remains a higher-risk name with real upside. x.comÂ
Pagaya looks mispriced at $12: the AI lending platform just closed a $600M AAA-rated ABS deal, so the bond market sees what the stock market doesn't. Citizens reiterated Outperform with a $22 price target. x.comÂ
Pagaya may be one of the cheapest stocks relative to its growth, at about 12.5x earnings after earnings grew over 4x in 2025, with management guiding for roughly 50% more earnings growth in 2026. Revenue still grew 26% last year; the selloff reflects business-model risk in the current macro, and net income outpacing revenue reflects margin expansion rather than a topping business. FICO is safer but has far less upside. A significant position depends on a few factors still to be resolved. x.com … Show more
Pagaya's 8.875% 2030 senior notes are the best self-help credit among the high-yield bonds reviewed, still priced far outside normal B risk at about 71.5 despite real liability improvements. Pagaya refinanced a costlier term loan, cutting about $40M a year of cash interest, and repriced its revolver. 2025 adjusted EBITDA rose 76% to $371M, with $410-460M guided for 2026, and ABS access held up. The bond needs genuine rerating, and Pagaya stays tied to consumer-credit and securitization risk. … Show more
Pagaya is one of the few already-profitable vertical AI applications, and industry-embedded software should gain value even as AI eats generic SaaS. It is fintech infrastructure, not a lender: AI credit decisions lift approvals for bank, auto and POS lending partners, while its ABS and forward-flow funding absorbs the loans. Its edge is data scale and deep credit-workflow embedding, not its static models. Risks include the credit cycle, ABS liquidity, regulation and partner concentration. x.com … Show more