Semiconductors look attractive because SMH's largest volume since July is appearing as it defends last month's and last week's lows. This area is the concentrated spot for the ETF's largest institutional investment ever. x.com 

Semiconductors are drawing dip buyers in a rotational market, as ETF flows show investors buying semis while selling the rally in software and warming to gold and bitcoin as the dollar's status comes into question. x.com 

Semiconductors' parabolic run is likely to end in a bear market, and record ETF inflows may be a contrarian warning. The sector's forward P/E was 12.8 at its 2022 low and 11.5 at its 2018 low, versus the 16.4 cited now in the quoted post. Past parabolic runs saw 43%-55% drawdowns; the previous record inflow came at a top. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Semiconductors could capture scarce spot compute's value if its forward curve holds. Compute trades in deep contango, while chip stocks price in little of that value; near-term moves are unpredictable. That makes the sector very bullish. The earlier lab-funding risk looks less acute: Anthropic should hold nearly $200B cash after its IPO and is operating-cash-flow profitable. Even with 2029 capex cuts, chips look cheap if future buyers do not default. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's beat has relit the AI trade and given semiconductors a fresh catalyst. Chips led Wednesday's close, with AMD, Nvidia, Micron, Marvell and Broadcom all up, but SMH is still below its 21-day average near 594. It needs to hold 536 and reclaim 562 before buyers regain control; 594 is the next test. x.com  x.com 

Tech and semiconductor bounces are mainly driven by less urgent hedge-fund selling rather than fresh buying. Per Goldman Sachs, tech is still being sold amid very low activity; there is no sign risk has been added yet. The unwind may be nearing its end, especially as hyperscalers stick to capex plans and Q3 semiconductor earnings look likely to be positive. Less crowded positioning and more normal multiples leave a healthier base for a longer-term rebuild. x.com 

Semiconductor earnings have outpaced prices, making the selloff look more like forced positioning than a broken growth case. Since January 2025, the SOX rose about 114% while reconstructed forward earnings rose about 198%; the estimate is approximate. Hedge funds sold global tech at a greater-than-three-standard-deviation pace in October 5-16, a pattern seen near earlier lows, though another sharp flush could come before a reversal. x.com 

Semiconductors have a window to keep rising into the end of September, though this is repair, not a new era. A week ago almost nothing in the complex was above its short-term averages; now nearly everything is, and semis jumped from the bottom third to the top five of a breadth-weighted sector leaderboard as money left defensives. The macro regime flipped to risk-on mid-move. But no name is at a new high, and fading daily liquidity points to October chop and a real cooloff by mid-month. x.com  … Show more

Semiconductor stocks have a plausible case to fall at least another 10% or so, as the pain expected before the midterms arrived earlier than most anticipated, in July. Chips are king, so their weakness drives the market. Tech should still come back with a vengeance and make this an easy buy again, as it did after COVID, DeepSeek, Liberation Day and the Iran war. x.com 

Semiconductors could leg up hard on real profits and pull capital out of SaaS. Chip stocks are printing earnings without circular financing or off-balance-sheet shenanigans, and they have recently moved with a -1 correlation to SaaS. With volume this heavy, lifting the chip ETFs 2% takes a lot of actual dollars, funded from SaaS, which has less liquidity to absorb the selling; if past is prologue, a semiconductor rally would crush SaaS. x.com