IBM should re-rate over the medium to long term on two fronts: quantum computing, where the U.S. government is taking a stake, and a broader software re-rating as software is no longer seen purely as an AI loser. IBM also has a strong customer base and channels, with deep customer stickiness. x.com 

IBM could be next in line, after Dell and Intel, to benefit from the Trump-driven AI and domestic technology narrative. As the large-cap leader in quantum computing, it sits on an emerging theme that still feels early relative to AI infrastructure and data centers. Its price has reclaimed the weekly Ichimoku Cloud, typically a shift back to a bullish long-term trend, and a breakout to new all-time highs projects a path toward about $500. x.com 

IBM is a valuation trap, with a high-conviction sell target of $200 by December 2026 as its multiple compresses toward its historical average. It lags in AI and quantum, its premium P/E lacks the structural growth to justify it, and its CY26 EPS estimate of $12.35 is under threat. A macro slowdown could push enterprises to cut nice-to-have transformation projects, and missing hyped quantum milestones would speed a rerating as Google and Microsoft pull ahead. x.com  x.com 

IBM, the quantum computing leader, is a buy after President Trump fast-tracked quantum computing with multiple executive orders, making the next three years especially interesting for the company. x.com 

IBM has a quantum catalyst in a $10B five-year commitment and a big US government deal, plus AI and hybrid cloud tailwinds as watsonx and generative AI bookings run strong and enterprise automation accelerates. The stock is almost above its 200-day moving average with momentum increasing. Analysts have issued multiple buy upgrades, including DZ Bank at $295, with targets of $280-$340+, 12-30% above roughly $255, and earnings estimates are rising. x.com 

IBM is extremely expensive, and its latest announcement adds caution: enterprises are prioritizing hardware and memory purchases, which pressures software spending. Quantum computing is a distant option, software is too small a part of the business to drive upside, and the stock carries a significant Trump premium. The same shift supports even stronger conviction in semiconductors and memory. x.com 

AI is accelerating quantum computing by attacking its real bottleneck, real-time error correction, a pattern-recognition task deep learning excels at. DeepMind's AlphaQubit cuts errors 30% versus the best fast classical decoder, and Nvidia is productizing the layer with Ising, NVQLink and CUDA-Q as the core toll road. Alphabet, IBM and Microsoft add lab exposure, Rigetti and IonQ pure-play upside, and FormFactor, MKS and Keysight sell shovels. AI may also eat quantum's early chemistry uses. … Show more

IBM's second-quarter miss looks like a timing issue rather than AI taking over software, with valuation offering support. Shares fell after management cited clients shifting capex to memory and hardware amid supply constraints and price hikes, plus poor execution on closing deals. It is a rare miss for CEO Arvind Krishna. The stock could be dead money for a while. x.com 

IBM trades at an AI premium with no real AI growth behind it. The company forecast only 1% growth yet more than doubled from $150 to over $320 on AI hype, while its AI business is effectively non-existent. Its Q2 earnings warning came from consulting and infrastructure, not software, and the stock has fallen back to its May level around $220. x.com  x.com  x.com 

IBM's record one-day drop, on pace to surpass its 1987 Black Monday decline, is the biggest overreaction since Netflix's near-40% plunge in 2022. IBM's CEO said only a few large capex deals in mainframe and its associated software were paused near quarter-end, not a widespread problem, and that IBM does not see its software being disrupted by AI at all. x.com  x.com