Avis Budget is undervalued even at a $15 billion market cap, when CoreWeave carries a $62 billion market cap on half the revenue. x.com
Roger
Business Owner, Former Assistant Research Professor
CoreWeave looks like a poor long because its debt now exceeds its market capitalization. x.com
CoreWeave's 3.2x 2027 revenue multiple makes it one of the most attractive stocks in the market. x.com
Avis Budget Group's shorts are not wrong, and the concentrated hedge-fund longs look hard to monetize. Avis hasn't had a year of positive free cash flow in a decade, carries about $3.5B of net debt excluding cars, and faces obsolescence if self-driving cars cut the need to own or rent, while better-capitalized Uber is chasing the intermediary role. SRS effectively controls the board, so needed share issuance is unlikely, and selling its stake would collapse the price. x.com
CoreWeave still trades at 7.6 times book value despite the implosion, well above the 1-4 times book value it should command. x.com
CoreWeave's pricing power is overlooked amid financing fears, making it potentially the most misunderstood AI stock right now. It had over $104B in Q2 backlog and signed $25B in net new commitments over six weeks. Short-term contracts approach $40M per MW annually versus about $7M on active capacity, but that rate cannot be applied fleetwide. A $4.2B convertible carried a 2.875% coupon despite near-15% unsecured bond yields; $35B debt, dilution and capacity-conversion risks remain. x.com
Avis Budget is overvalued: a walk through the rental car area at Washington Dulles airport showed nothing in car rentals that justifies $400 a share, even with AI. x.com
CoreWeave's Rubin monetization looks abysmal at BofA's projected $12 per watt annually. That holds even if the figure is for gross rather than IT capacity; investors need BofA to be wrong by a wide margin. CoreWeave remains a sinking ship either way. x.com
CoreWeave's growing revenue and large backlog have not translated into positive fundamentals. Its trailing free cash flow has fallen to -$13.65 billion, net income to -$1.93 billion and EPS to -$3.66; the stock may still work out, but the uncertainty warrants caution. x.com
Avis Budget's market cap looks absurd: on rough private valuations it is now worth more than Enterprise, U-Haul, Hertz, Turo, Budget, Alamo, Thrifty and Ace combined, basically the entire rent-a-car industry. Shorting at the $490s is late after the $700-$800s, so only a small short, but the stock is probably going to $400. x.com x.com
CoreWeave looks positioned to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of years of demand for GPU computing at scale. It should be one of the most important players in the AI infrastructure buildout, with Jensen Huang and Nvidia deeply tied to it. At $50 a share, its debt load is not a concern; the stock could look like one of the best buying opportunities by decade-end. x.com x.com