Charter is drowning in debt, and that leverage outweighs its cash-flow appeal. @k3ithmccullough puts Charter at a 25% free-cash-flow yield by 2028. The most bullish point is that capex is expected to come down, but on a quick look the heavy debt load makes the stock look very poor. x.com 

Charter looks like a value buy at a forward P/E of 3.8, but the risk of further big drops makes it a pass. The stock fell 24% on its earnings reaction, back to its 2016 price. x.com 

Charter is a very asymmetric bet at 2.35x consensus 2027 EPS, letting it buy back shares massively at a P/E of about 2. A modeled bad case with much bigger, continued subscriber losses still yields about $30 of owner earnings. Charter can offset lost subscribers by raising prices, capturing M&A synergies and paying down debt, with many years of deleveraging before EBITDA would fall 20% and debt covenants would bite. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Charter Communications looks like a trade going forward rather than a long-term investment. It behaves like an amplified version of long-dated Treasury bonds, so if interest rates fall over the coming years the shares would benefit, but many long-duration assets offer that without the leverage risk if rates stay here or higher. x.com 

Charter's stock-based compensation of a little over half a billion dollars a year is a real cost to shareholders that should come out of free cash flow, since it dilutes their ownership. One mitigating point on the debt: John Malone was right to borrow very long term, with over 90% at fixed rates and some bonds running into the 2060s, per a post the author replies to. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Charter Communications is covered in a new, free-to-read note. x.com 

Harmonic's cOS turns it into a software business whose margins rise with every cable operator that converts from hardware. cOS virtualizes cable access networks, holds over 95% share of virtualized CCAP and serves every major US cable operator; DOCSIS 4.0 upgrades by Charter, Comcast and Cox against fiber require it. Q1 revenue rose 43% to $121.7M, backlog rose 87% to $582M of mostly software and services, and gross margin is 52%. At 3.5x forward revenue versus peers' 4-6x, it hasn't re-rated. … Show more

Harmonic is the toll booth between AI-era traffic and US cable networks, with over 95% of the software operators need for DOCSIS 4.0 upgrades. Upstream traffic grows 21.7% a year, so operators must upgrade or lose subscribers to fiber. Comcast, Charter, Cox and Altice run its cOS platform, and every node in Charter's $5.5B upgrade needs a Harmonic license. Q1 revenue rose 43% and backlog hit $582M, up 87%, while software should rise from 8% of revenue in 2022 to 38% by 2028. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Charter Communications is now worth owning at prices last seen in 2013, with a margin of safety coming simply from lower capex. That marks a turn from the earlier view that buybacks at excessive prices made the stock unattractive. Comcast is likewise too cheap to pass up, helped by its upcoming split, and Charter's repurchases can resume within days. x.com  x.com 

Harmonic is still incredibly early in a global adoption wave: a first smaller European operator has started deploying its solutions, and the giants will have to follow given technical realities. Its cOS virtualized platform dominates the cable core, delivering multi-gigabit DOCSIS 4.0 over existing coax; per @KawzInvests, Comcast, Charter, Cox and Altice run it, with 150 customers and 45.7 million modems. Virtual OLT software opens a $2.5 billion-plus fiber market. x.com  x.com