Nebius' software efficiency and a possible end to heavy AI financing support a re-rating. Per @DrTomsLens, its engineers got about 43% more video output from the same GPUs, cutting compute cost per second by 30%; newer hardware alone is not enough without capable software teams. Oracle expects to fund growth from free cash flow in FY2029, suggesting capital-heavy AI providers may eventually outgrow debt and dilution. Google Cloud reported 103% revenue growth amid strong AI infrastructure demand. … Show more

Oracle's roughly $300B OpenAI backlog looks worth more than the 19x forward earnings the stock trades at, judging by how GPT-6 Astra performs in use. x.com 

Oracle's infrastructure backlog carries a financing risk: a reported ~$300B OpenAI deal accounts for much of its $664B backlog, raising a real question about OpenAI's ability to pay. The reported ~$50B versus ~$70B OpenAI run-rate gap is mostly a difference in how cloud-partner sales are counted, not by itself evidence that physical AI demand has fallen. x.com  x.com 

Oracle is a buy here if it gets paid. A drop of more than 60% from a 52-week high has happened only once before, and passing on this level looks like a mistake that will be obvious in four years. x.com 

Oracle's AI buildout looks fundable as spending peaks and cash flow turns positive. Spending is forecast to peak in FY27-28, with free cash flow positive in 2H FY28 and above $30bn in FY29, a roughly $54bn swing. New capital raising is capped at $20bn through 2030, half equity and half debt. Revenue is projected to grow from $90bn next year to $225bn+ by FY30. Bullish Oracle. x.com 

Oracle's reliance on OpenAI makes its backlog vulnerable. About $250B of backlog comes from OpenAI, which is not making money; that risk is no longer in Oracle's hands, and the stock is very likely to fall further. x.com  x.com 

Oracle's plan to fund its AI buildout from cash flow makes last week's financing fears look completely overdone. It expects capex to peak in FY27-28, free cash flow to turn positive in H2 FY28 and top $30B in FY29, funding growth from then. Oracle plans at most $20B in further capital raises through FY30, excluding refinancing, after an already completed $20B equity raise. Vendor financing, customer prepayments and customer-supplied hardware should reduce upfront cash needs. x.com  x.com 

Oracle's OpenAI contracts are valued at very little because the market expects them never to happen, so they should reprice as OpenAI proves fine. OpenAI is the only lab running both AI revenue engines: enterprise subscriptions and API fees, which carried Anthropic past it in ARR, plus over a billion mostly free ChatGPT users now being monetized through ads, a business that hit a $1 billion run rate six months after launch. Both labs will also need far more compute. x.com 

OpenAI's funding strain makes Oracle's AI revenue less dependable because OpenAI pays its bills with money it must keep raising. Investors resisted Morgan Stanley's $1.4 trillion valuation pitch, forcing a cut to $1.25 trillion, and the next raise could come in below $30 billion; contracts funded by fundraising are worth less than contracts funded by cash flow. x.com 

OpenAI running ahead of its revenue projections derisks Oracle, whose backlog is 54% OpenAI, making it attractive again at 18x forward earnings after its worst week since 2001. Brad Gerstner said Anthropic and OpenAI together were doing about $80 billion in revenue; with Anthropic reportedly near $50 billion, OpenAI is around $30 billion ARR, above the $25 billion it projected for FY2026 last winter. x.com