Temple 8 Research
AI Buildout, Macro & Energy Infrastructure Research
Astronics' quarter confirms the thesis, with a guidance raise and record backlog showing its earnings base is growing. FY2026 revenue guidance rose to $1.02-1.04B from $985M, above $986.4M consensus, and Q3 guidance of $265-275M topped $253M expected. Revenue of $260M beat by 6% and rose 27%, adjusted EBITDA margin hit a multi-year high of 19.8%, and backlog reached a record $780.6M, up 20.9%, with record bookings. Test Systems more than doubled, likely on the Army radio program. x.com
Astronics has a strong moat with an 80% global share in airline-seat power outlets, and its earnings base is growing into its multiple. Backlog hit a record $734M, 81% of it converting within 12 months, with book-to-bill of 1.26 and gross margin up 310 bps. At about 18x forward EBITDA it is not undervalued, and a post-earnings pullback could be a great buying opportunity. It has zero AI exposure. x.com x.com
Applied Aerospace & Defense's record $1.13B backlog and sole-supplier role on 87% of its business make it much stronger than its chart looks. Q2 adjusted EBITDA rose 38.5%, and customers include SpaceX and Anduril. Jefferies named it one of its top small/mid-cap cyclical ideas with a Buy rating and $20 target, more than 80% above Wednesday's close. The falling-wedge trigger is $11.54. x.com
Carpenter Technology's scarce alloy capacity should earn more as aerospace orders grow and contracts reprice. Two aerospace agreements were signed at higher prices in fiscal Q1, structural bookings rose 49% year on year, and the bull case assumes new Athens capacity starts early. That case puts FY29 operating income at $1.36B, above the company's target, and the twelve-month valuation at $594-$650. At $275 most of the bear case has played out; it is a great time to build a long-term holding. … Show more
Lockheed Martin's earnings beat and raised guidance point to a defense-stock shortage quietly approaching. Per TrendSpider, third-quarter EPS was $7.97 against $7.42 expected and sales were $20.711 billion against $20.495 billion expected; FY2026 GAAP EPS and sales guidance were raised. x.com
