Samantha LaDuc
Founder & Strategist of LaDucTrading, Cross-Asset Analysis
Intel's $15B common stock offering undercuts the case for its balance sheet. On its July 23 earnings call, asked about the need to raise capital, the CFO said Intel was in a really good place, with over $30 billion of cash and a $10 billion revolver. That makes the "super" bullish view hard to sustain. x.comÂ
Intel's CEO buying stock is a strong signal, because insiders sell for many reasons but buy for only one. Per @wallstengine, Lip-Bu Tan bought 105,263 shares at $95, about $10M, lifting his ownership to about 1.33M shares. x.comÂ
Intel's CEO just bought $10M of stock at $95, a whale worth following. x.comÂ
Intel looks priced for too much good news before it has actually delivered on anything. Its CPU story was carrying the share price. x.comÂ
Intel has a consummate dealmaker in CEO Lip-Bu Tan, and the market is still sleeping on it. As a venture investor he backed more IPOs than any VC ever. Tan says Intel is now a partner on Elon Musk's Terafab project, a step change in how logic, memory and packaging will be built, and he is the demanding leader that effort needs. x.com x.comÂ
Intel shares now cost less than its CEO paid when he bought $10M of his own stock, a vote of confidence with shares more than 25% below all-time highs. x.comÂ
Intel's weak guidance undermines the turnaround bet. The whole turnaround now looks like a scam, though the view will be reassessed later. x.com x.comÂ
Intel's raised capex signals a 14A customer announcement is coming soon, since CEO Lip-Bu Tan said he would not raise it without a customer lined up. Intel's infrastructure is a nearly priceless national-security asset should China take Taiwan, and rebuilding it would cost far more than its roughly $500B value. President Trump is its biggest fan and pushes companies to do business with Intel, though that support could change when he leaves office in two years. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Intel's near-term growth is constrained by a Kiryat Gat factory blast and memory-driven PC weakness. The weak Q4 outlook calls for answers: the blast looks set to cut roughly $300 million of revenue in Q4 and could have a similar impact in Q1, limiting data-center growth. Fab ownership gives Intel pricing power and enterprise demand is strong; external foundry customers would add another tailwind if won. CEO Lip-Bu Tan said Nova Lake will allow Intel to take back share. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Intel's turnaround is real, but its valuation already assumes a lot goes right while Foundry has much to prove. Revenue grew 25% to $16.1 billion, data center revenue jumped 59%, and the CEO says Intel can meet only about half of CPU demand, with ASPs up 48%. But Foundry lost $2.1 billion on $5.8 billion of revenue, only $293 million of it external, with no high-volume marquee customer. After a roughly 225% run to $120, Intel is worth about $634 billion, already paying for much of the comeback. … Show more
Intel's data-center and foundry growth could outlast its PC-driven weak guidance. Data-center revenue rose 78% to $7.3bn and foundry revenue rose 58%, but PCs still account for about half the business and management expects their slowdown through at least the first half of next year. Q4 revenue and margin guidance disappointed, and $0.17 of quarterly EPS came from a mark-to-market gain. The selloff prices in the PC problem, not the turnaround. Overweight; $130 target. x.com x.comÂ