Scott R. Grossman
Founder of Vindico Capital, Consumer-Sector Investor
Meta's rising capex is what investors want, and the Street is being myopic by not owning it. Like Alphabet after it raised capex, Meta investors did not sell, because capex and investment are only going higher; questioning the return on that spending is the right question at the wrong time. Meta is a source of funds compared with the hyperscalers and looks somewhat cheap in an overheated market. x.comÂ
Meta's AI infrastructure financing raises the risk that a long wait for revenue and profit will keep its shares volatile. It disclosed plans to raise up to $95 billion. @amitisinvesting warns that further dilution could keep the stock stuck even if the buildout eventually pays off. Meta's selloff is still a massive buying opportunity. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Meta's early AI monetization in its core business makes the long-term upside potentially far greater than the short-term pain from its planned $95B capital raise and possible dilution. Its fair value is $1,100, and the shares are worth holding for years despite short-term moves. If Meta monetizes the infrastructure, upside is massive; even if it does not, the assets still have value. x.comÂ
Meta looks unattractive because its fines, capital raises and AI capex make the math ugly. The stock could trade back to the $500s, while hyperscalers probably have to make those raises with equity down 15-25%. Muse looks like a fad and average users may not need AI agents, matching LogicalThesis's view. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Meta's growth and earnings make its valuation appealing. It trades at 17x 2027 estimates with 17% EPS and 22% revenue growth. Its $140 billion EBITDA should make it worth more than Anthropic, which has none, though that comparison could be wrong. If distribution is king, Meta Muse could benefit from Meta's 3.64 billion daily active users, according to GuruFocus News. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Meta's core advertising business is significantly outgrowing its biggest competitors even before factoring in the newer businesses it is building. Q3 ad revenue rose 26% year over year, versus 10.6% at Alphabet and 10.9% at Amazon. Back at 19x forward earnings, Meta is the most undervalued Magnificent Seven stock. x.com x.comÂ
Meta's heavy spending raises questions about how it will earn a return even if its core business improves. Quarterly free cash flow fell from $13.2 billion in March 2026 to $1.7 billion in June and negative $1.2 billion in September. x.comÂ
Meta's voluntary move is bullish because it expects to profit from it. Its massive debt capacity remains untouched and is increasing. x.comÂ
Meta's valuation is compelling again because its operating-cash-flow multiple has fallen while revenue growth accelerated over the past year. It trades at 12x operating cash flow, close to 10x 2027 operating cash flow. Its unique position should make it one of the AI era's biggest winners, with Muse becoming its best asset in the long run. The equity raise's timing was unwelcome, but that is now behind it. x.comÂ
Meta's next-year earnings consensus of $34 a share makes a 30x forward multiple too optimistic unless it delivers a major surprise. The proliferation of $1,000 price targets also looks like a warning to get out. x.com x.comÂ
Meta's financial strength gives it an advantage in securing scarce capital for AI infrastructure, with funding going to those trusted to earn the best returns. Meta says its planned $60B at-the-market equity program is not expected to begin until Q1 2027 and complements $35B in underwritten offerings; its Aa3/AA- ratings allow efficient long-term borrowing. x.comÂ
