Duolingo's user growth has accelerated even though the stock is still down, which leaves the setup not too bad. x.com 

Duolingo's growth story is back. Daily active users rose 23% year over year, monthly active users 10% and revenue 18%. Margins are down, but the company is still free cash flow positive. x.com 

Duolingo's growth is unlikely to recover soon because its social media interest trends still look awful. Viral content from its accounts drove daily-user growth for years; that stream dried up, growth slowed sharply, and US consumer usage data also looks bad, a few quarters after management said things would normalize after its AI-first misstep. Being priced in and cheap is the best counter, but smaller subjects such as chess cannot move the needle if language learning struggles. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Duolingo is evolving from a playful language app into an always-available personal AI tutor with 100 million daily users, backed by a fast-growing, increasingly engaged user base and dramatically falling AI costs. That case was visible four months ago when sentiment was poor and the stock was at $100; it has since risen 50%. x.com 

Duolingo is hard not to buy once people feel comfortable dunking on it after a 77% drop in a year. @Spybef0rey0ubuy notes the chart may be curling into a bottom but is still avoiding it, warning that stocks often look cheap right before another leg down. x.com 

Duolingo has broken a key part of its thesis: bookings growth stayed below 20% for several quarters, sliding from 43% to 13% in just four quarters. Management's strategic shift may eventually help, but it will take time, and capital sitting in an underperformer carries a large opportunity cost. x.com 

Duolingo's current user retention is at an all-time high and its social media growth is reaccelerating, with Instagram growth re-accelerating massively. That is a movie seen before. x.com 

Duolingo's bull case gains support from Evercore ISI's upgrade to Outperform, with its target doubled from $105 to $210. Evercore models about 99 million daily users by 2028, near management's 100 million goal and well above Wall Street's 85 million, and 2028 EPS of $5.10, about 24% above consensus. It compares Duolingo to Netflix in 2022: a growth wall, a strategy change, then re-acceleration. Management is trading near-term monetization for users and engagement; execution must follow. x.com 

Duolingo's pivot is hard to believe because user acquisition stalled quarter over quarter even though management made it the focus of its A/B tests, ahead of monetization. Data in a post the author replies to show DAUs up 21.2% year over year but decelerating, MAUs up just 5.8%, and gross margin expected to slip from 73% to 69% by Q4. The hope remains that the turnaround succeeds. x.com  x.com 

Duolingo's daily-user growth points to the stock soaring, the owl turning into an eagle. Per @wallstengine, an 8-K filed after an internal screen was accidentally shown to investors revealed daily active users up an estimated 27.4% year over year on August 17, with similar growth earlier in August. The company called the data preliminary and unvalidated, not an update to Q3 guidance. x.com