Venu
Position Trader, Market Leaders, Fundamental/Technical Analysis
Semtech is put forward as a stock to own. x.comÂ
Semtech benefits as larger AI clusters need faster, more efficient links between GPUs and switches, which its CopperEdge and FiberEdge chips supply. Data center revenue rose 91% year over year. The stock keeps setting all-time highs despite a broad semiconductor sell-off and tops US semiconductors by Momentum Score at 99, ahead of AMD and NVIDIA. x.comÂ
Semtech does not deserve its status as a hot optical stock, since it is mostly a low-quality analog business with only a couple of data center parts. The move has been striking, though being wrong is possible. x.comÂ
Semtech remains a Buy with a $162 target at 22x FY28 EPS, as AI demand runs about three times its supply capacity. F2Q revenue rose 33% YoY to $341.9M, EPS of $0.71 beat $0.61, gross margin hit a record 54.5%, and F3Q guidance of $410M revenue and $1.02-1.08 EPS tops estimates. 1.6T CopperEdge ACC is now in mass shipment to major hyperscalers, and FiberEdge targets over 50% of its 1.6T market by end-FY27. SiGe/InP wafer and packaging limits are the bottleneck; FY28 EPS is forecast at $7.40. … Show more
Semtech may see buyers soon as AI and optics stocks are on the run. At 172 the stock sits below its fast zone, and a close below 170 would end the thesis. x.comÂ
Semtech's valuation already assumes strong execution, so the stock needs growth to keep pace with a fast-expanding optical market. It is one of the few names with real products across all three AI networking layers, from scale-up copper to scale-out optics chips and, via the HieFo laser deal, scale-across. FY26 data center revenue rose 58% to $223M, with over 50% growth guided for FY27. BofA sees the optical market growing from $14B in 2025 to $73B by 2030, a pace that would ease the multiple. … Show more
Semtech's low-power chips connect AI clusters and are hard to replace once designed in. The stock is breaking out, with quarterly relative performance back at highs and about 20% to go to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. x.comÂ
Semtech's high-power lasers offer upside because its fiscal 2030 target counts only a very moderate contribution from them. Management says data-center revenue will more than double this year and next on backlog; it plans to grow laser capacity three to four times by year-end as demand exceeds supply. Around $140, shares trade near 11 times Semtech's $12.40-$13 fiscal 2030 adjusted EPS target. Qualification and shipments must make the laser ramp credible in fiscal 2029-30. x.com x.comÂ
Semtech is not an attractive holding because of its historic cyclicality, unless the business has materially changed. x.comÂ
Semtech should lead semiconductors higher once yields eventually behave, and $250 within six months would be no surprise. It is resting on support at its previous all-time highs and is no longer screaming cheap, worth about $210, but it has been extremely strong. Management gave incredible visibility into 2027, so the story is somewhat derisked and now comes down to execution. x.com x.comÂ