Scott R. Grossman
Founder of Vindico Capital, Consumer-Sector Investor
Amazon is a robotics play as AI moves into native, physical intelligence, and it is set to massacre Walmart. It can manufacture any result it wants, and its margins have been held back for more than ten years. For now the stock is weighed down by a weak consumer and questions about where it sits on the AI frontier, making a beta-driven selloff a chance to buy. x.com
Amazon has the most cash flow torque among its peers, and it is being intentionally throttled while the stock remains fairly cheap. The improvement is starting to show in the numbers, and Amazon is still holding back, especially in consumer retail, where the pie keeps growing via direct-to-consumer share. Whole Foods has become a real competitive weapon, and Walmart has not digested the investment required, so Amazon should keep taking share. x.com
AWS's rapid growth in a huge business makes the long-term outlook decisively bullish for Amazon and the AI ecosystem. AWS revenue grew 39.3% year over year in September 2026; management guides for growth above 40% in 2027 and 2028. Amazon is always very conservative with guidance, making that AI outlook doubly bullish. x.com x.com x.com
Alphabet's core Search growth is slowing while AI spending surges, making the selloff look deserved despite fast Cloud growth. Search growth fell from 19% to 17% to 12% over three quarters; Search now represents just under half of revenue. The stock could fall to $250, though Amazon is the preferred buy. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Amazon's weak retail growth has shaken the earlier buy case. Online-store sales rose just 2% year over year, and the retail numbers look so poor that it is no longer clear at what price the shares are a buy. x.com x.com x.com
Amazon's record AI spending looks backed by AWS demand, despite pressure on near-term profit. AWS grew 39% to $46bn, and CEO Andy Jassy projects growth above 40% in both 2027 and 2028. Quarterly capex reached $77.3bn, almost $20bn above expectations; the Q4 profit guide missed and retail ads softened. AWS acceleration makes the drop worth buying. Overweight; $370 target. x.com x.com
AI and robotics are about to improve Amazon's margins in a way the market is overlooking. x.com
Amazon does not look like a huge AI winner based on its stock chart. Replacing American workers with H-1B hires who may not know how to maintain what was built is a further concern. x.com
Diversified cash flows in the billions make the AI-buildout basket more appealing than standalone model companies. Many members look reasonably priced and have longer records of delivering returns; Anthropic and OpenAI look much more like gambles at current valuations, though either could appeal at the right price. A possible equal-weight portfolio to revisit in five years includes Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle and SpaceX. x.com x.com
Amazon has an incredible growth runway, and Andy Jassy's latest shareholder letter leaves no doubt that it is the leader in AI. x.com
Hyperscalers' incremental return on capital is cratering, so hard spending decisions are coming. In the June quarter, Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet grew LTM EBIT 20% but needed 38% more deployed capital, before token prices cratered and with much demand from non-self-sustaining OpenAI. Compute and models may become a utility-like commodity. Insiders are selling, with Jeff Bezos filing to sell $4B of Amazon stock, and Google's $25B bond deal widened hyperscaler credit spreads. x.com x.com
Qualcomm has little downside with Amazon having come in as an investor at around $160 a share. Investors give it almost no credit for AI, wearables, robotics and auto, and those businesses can do the heavy lifting to keep the stock steady next year. x.com
