The Few Bets That Matter
Concentrated Equity Investor, AI Infrastructure
Nvidia's valuation gives too little credit to its expected long-term earnings growth. Its forward P/E-to-growth ratio is 0.28, the lowest since late 2023; the bullish read depends on those growth expectations proving accurate. x.com x.com
Nvidia's rising revenue alongside a much lower P/E is getting hard to ignore. Its chart shows quarterly revenue above $80 billion in Q2 2026 while the P/E is around 30x, down from much higher multiples in prior years. x.com
Rising Chinese competition and doubts about valuations add to Nvidia's downside risk as the AI sector bleeds. Nvidia's break from an uptrending triangular pattern rarely ends well; the AI bubble is cracking, and the trendline break marks the beginning of something much bigger. x.com
Nvidia looks interesting again because rising earnings estimates have not been reflected in its valuation. FY28 EPS estimates rose about 25% in 60 days while shares stayed roughly flat; it trades below 14 times FY28 earnings with a mid-single-digit free-cash-flow yield. Exponential change is hard to grasp, and it is hard to see Nvidia not winning if the US does, though there is little capital to absorb market wobbles. x.com x.com
Nvidia's robotics and autonomous-vehicle opportunities are not yet baked into its valuation. The stock looks super cheap here and ranks first among the Magnificent Seven for investment attractiveness. x.com x.com
Nvidia's $14 billion purchase of Hugging Face deepens a conglomerate discount that has been building. The business may be getting more insulated, but it is also getting harder to understand, which could add to the stock's lack of a multiple premium. This is a caution rather than an outright bearish call. x.com
Nvidia's cash could have more value invested in AI companies with strong demand but too little capital to scale, especially neoclouds that can execute. Their valuations look very attractive now, making equity stakes preferable to more buybacks or dividends despite criticism of circular deals. SpaceX may need the money less because it is already very big. x.com x.com x.com
NVIDIA's valuation fell because earnings grew faster than the stock, not because the business slowed. It trades below 17x forward earnings, near its cheapest in over a decade, with net income expected to grow 99% this fiscal year while the stock is up 22%. Quarterly revenue was $96.2B, up 106%, at a 75% gross margin, and next quarter is guided at $108B with no China data-center revenue. About 70% growth is expected in fiscal 2028, limited by supply, and Vera Rubin is ramping fastest ever. x.com
NVIDIA looks close to the top of an AI bubble, with a two-year megaphone pattern signaling exhaustion of growth. Such expanding, volatile patterns historically don't end painlessly. Its roughly 22x valuation on a $4.8 trillion market cap and $216 billion profit is approaching Cisco's roughly 30x in 2000. Nvidia just raised $25 billion in debt, drawing $85 billion of orders. x.com x.com
Nvidia in 2026 is not Cisco in 2000: it grows over 100% a year at far lower multiples, making it still an amazing buy and likely the first $10T company, possibly by 2028. Cisco peaked near 200x earnings, 30x sales and 176x FCF on 55% growth; Nvidia trades at 30x, 18x and 45x with 75% gross margins. Forward, it is about 20x earnings and 22x FCF, near all-time lows, and supply constraints and contracts let it guide a full year ahead for the first time. A $6T cap would not mean overvalued. x.com … Show more