Vlad Bastion
Founder of Investment Bastion, Systematic Stock Ratings & Algorithmic Portfolios
Cava Group's valuation is hard to justify for a restaurant chain at 74x 2028 earnings, a multiple even Chipotle never reached during its hypergrowth phase. That holds even though, as @Brian_Stoffel_ notes, Cava's same-store sales rose about 10%, well ahead of its closest competition, with traffic up about 7%. x.comÂ
Cava Group trades at the EV/sales multiple where Chipotle peaked, despite vastly inferior unit economics. The persistent bid under the stock is ridiculous. A post the author replies to notes Chipotle's permabid lasted six years, about as far as the fast-casual concept can run before gravity resumes. x.com x.comÂ
CAVA's growth trajectory just doesn't support its current share price, making it a short idea. x.comÂ
CAVA looks attractive near $50, close to its 52-week low, with sales projected to grow more than 20% a year for the next three years. It is still an expensive stock at a P/E above 90. x.comÂ
Cava's share price looks out of line with the restaurant sector. Restaurants are carnage right now, with Chipotle back at $32, so there is little reason for Cava to hold up here. x.comÂ
Cava's growth is not sustainable because quality tends to fall as scale goes up, as happened at Chipotle. A post the author replies to adds that Cava's suburban expansion is not making money, same-store sales are down and more than 100 new bowl competitors are eating into it in what it calls a slop-bowl bubble. x.comÂ
Cava's restaurants, nearly the only fast-food chain in the Mediterranean space, are about to pass Chipotle in sales per unit. Two officers have bought shares, a positive write-up lifted the stock 3.4%, and the chart shows a bullish falling wedge. x.comÂ
CAVA's 30% jump in three days on no news looks like a bizarre late-cycle move against weak fundamentals. Screwworm, a declining savings rate and a ridiculous valuation all argue against it. Target and private-credit-exposed names like Ares have shown similarly relentless moves late in the week. x.comÂ
Cava looks like a decent short because rising input costs are about to hit just as consumers get squeezed. Higher energy, urea and fertilizer prices will almost certainly raise food costs, while the stock trades at 114x forward earnings for about 25% expected EPS growth over five years. Much of the recent rally looks like a short squeeze that is likely nearly or already done. x.com x.comÂ
CAVA's results defy restaurant downturn fears: Q1 same-store sales rose 9.7% versus 6.0% expected, helped by its new pomegranate salmon dish, and every Q1 metric beat. The CFO says Q2 comps are tracking in line with Q1, far above the Street's 4.7%, while full-year comp guidance rose to 4.5-6.5% and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $181-191M. Short interest of 13% should add to strength on the beat. x.com x.comÂ
Chipotle looks expensive on a levels-only valuation screen: at $31.50 it is 77% above the $17.82 upper end of a $14.00-$17.82 fair range. The accompanying screen uses a 1.37 PEG on 9% growth alongside 23x forward earnings; this is based on reported estimates, not fundamental diligence. x.comÂ
