TacticzHazel
Energy-Market Analyst, Long-Term Fundamental Investing
S&P Global looks like a strong, fairly low-risk stock likely to beat the market from here, as it trades at 20x forward earnings, among its lowest levels in a decade, despite one of the world's strongest moats. With Moody's it forms one of the best duopolies anywhere, yet it has been lumped into the SaaS selloff. x.comÂ
S&P Global's ratings and indices could form an exceptionally profitable, wide-moat standalone business. Without its other units, their implied operating margin would be around 68%, among the market's top five; that makes further spinoffs sensible, though the separation is hypothetical. x.com x.comÂ
S&P Global and Moody's look pretty cheap for a duopoly growing 10-11% a year, trading at 20-25 times earnings, with S&P Global the cheaper of the two. x.comÂ
Moody's and S&P Global could de-rate from high starting multiples if generalist portfolio managers come to see them as FICO 2.0. Their industry structures differ, but parallels in standards, pricing power and regulatory exposure could build a narrative that their pricing power is tapped out after the FICO case study, compressing multiples further. So far their de-rating has come from macro and AI pressure, not such fears. x.com x.com x.comÂ
S&P Global's valuation compression while fundamentals still look good is a gift from the market, because it owns two of the strongest businesses in the world. x.comÂ
S&P Global is undervalued by a lot, trading near 23x earnings and 20x forward versus a historical 30+, especially for a business of its quality. Mastercard may be fairly valued or slightly below, though it is the best business in the world with the least risk. This answers @Greg_GL_87, who argued both still trade near 30x earnings. x.comÂ
S&P Global's moat may be weaker than its ratings pricing power suggests, and its gross profit dollars are likely to come under pressure as AI does more of the work, even if margins rise. FICO and the credit bureaus once looked just as required and oligopolistic until Vantage, with regulatory help, built a better product and upended pricing. The market is skeptical of historical data resale, as with CoStar and Verisk; the index business looks durable. x.comÂ
S&P Global's stock price has recently disconnected from its business fundamentals, the kind of dislocation that makes a stock worth buying. x.comÂ
S&P Global is a quiet compounder that keeps delivering in the background. Its latest earnings were really strong, with revenue and net income both up double digits while spending stayed low, and margins remain excellent as the business scales efficiently despite continued investment. x.comÂ
S&P Global and Morningstar are lumped in with financials and could easily fall another 15-20% by the time Bloomberg declares a recession, so owning them would mainly add cyclical beta. x.comÂ
S&P Global may be boring, but it has one of the more interesting setups: after falling about 20% year to date, it trades at about 22x forward earnings versus a five-year average of about 29x. Nine tracked fund managers bought or added to it. x.comÂ
