Semiconductor earnings have outpaced prices, making the selloff look more like forced positioning than a broken growth case. Since January 2025, the SOX rose about 114% while reconstructed forward earnings rose about 198%; the estimate is approximate. Hedge funds sold global tech at a greater-than-three-standard-deviation pace in October 5-16, a pattern seen near earlier lows, though another sharp flush could come before a reversal. x.com 

Semiconductors have a window to keep rising into the end of September, though this is repair, not a new era. A week ago almost nothing in the complex was above its short-term averages; now nearly everything is, and semis jumped from the bottom third to the top five of a breadth-weighted sector leaderboard as money left defensives. The macro regime flipped to risk-on mid-move. But no name is at a new high, and fading daily liquidity points to October chop and a real cooloff by mid-month. x.com  … Show more

Tech and semiconductor bounces are mainly driven by less urgent hedge-fund selling rather than fresh buying. Per Goldman Sachs, tech is still being sold amid very low activity; there is no sign risk has been added yet. The unwind may be nearing its end, especially as hyperscalers stick to capex plans and Q3 semiconductor earnings look likely to be positive. Less crowded positioning and more normal multiples leave a healthier base for a longer-term rebuild. x.com 

Semiconductors look relatively cheap against the S&P 500, while their earnings are growing much faster, barring an EPS reset. The selloff looks overdone, though that does not mean it reverses tomorrow. x.com 

Some semiconductor stocks have returned to reasonable valuations as fundamentals improve, making recent declines buying opportunities. Many had traded at two to three times their median valuations; the correction brought some back toward normal, while sustained AI spending should benefit suppliers for years. x.com 

Semiconductors' parabolic run is likely to end in a bear market, and record ETF inflows may be a contrarian warning. The sector's forward P/E was 12.8 at its 2022 low and 11.5 at its 2018 low, versus the 16.4 cited now in the quoted post. Past parabolic runs saw 43%-55% drawdowns; the previous record inflow came at a top. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Semiconductors could capture scarce spot compute's value if its forward curve holds. Compute trades in deep contango, while chip stocks price in little of that value; near-term moves are unpredictable. That makes the sector very bullish. The earlier lab-funding risk looks less acute: Anthropic should hold nearly $200B cash after its IPO and is operating-cash-flow profitable. Even with 2029 capex cuts, chips look cheap if future buyers do not default. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Semiconductor earnings will be good, supporting a likely run into Q3 results. The group looks oversold, and the Anthropic/CoreWeave news is noise. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Semiconductors have likely already put in a major top, with their first bounce extremely weak. Semis are working back into big-volume selling with weak upside volume, and many stocks aren't joining the hardware rally as they should. Everyone on X still wants these stocks despite poor price action and volume, which is classic market-topping behavior. x.com  x.com 

Semiconductors look attractive because SMH's largest volume since July is appearing as it defends last month's and last week's lows. This area is the concentrated spot for the ETF's largest institutional investment ever. x.com