Joe
Full-Time Trader/Investor, Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Inflection Points
Credo can likely reach $7 of FY27 EPS, above Roth's $5.65 and Stifel's $6.25, because it tends to beat almost every quarter. Guidance for over 80% revenue growth implies about $2.4B for the year from $1.34B, leaving roughly $1.39B for Q3 and Q4 combined, all at 67-69% gross margins. Slower quarter-on-quarter growth on the next call may scare some, but management was clear an inflection comes in the second half; a shakeout below $200 would be a buying chance. x.com x.com
Credo's interconnect opportunity grows as campus-scale AI clusters require more links to validate and integrate. The OCP 2026 meeting takeaway is that complex requirements put interconnect at the center, with both copper and optical links set to benefit. x.com
Inference's move toward edge devices and dense, memory-hungry racks should drive demand for specialized chips, links, power delivery and cooling. McKinsey projects inference at 60% of AI computing demand by 2030. Ambarella makes on-device AI chips; Astera Labs links GPUs, memory and networks; Credo supplies short copper connections; Rambus earns from memory interfaces; Navitas reduces power waste; Modine cools dense racks; and Super Micro builds inference-specific server racks at volume. x.com … Show more
Credo looks exposed as networking becomes AI's next bottleneck and Nvidia locks down optical fiber for scale-up, scale-out and scale-across links. MicroLED is readily available and a good contender for scale-up and potentially scale-out, with many Asian suppliers pivoting into it. x.com x.com
Credo covers both short- and longer-range compute connectivity needs as those domains evolve. AECs should become even more critical for short-range scale-up and scale-out, while ALCs address longer-range scale-out. x.com
AI inference is hitting a memory limit, and CXL switching, which pools memory across servers, is where the value map changes. HBM is costly and limited per chip, and bigger models outgrow one server. Marvell is the bet on switching as the control point, via XConn and Structera S, now in production. Penguin Solutions makes CXL deployable in its KV cache server. Micron's CXL DRAM is a structural tailwind still tied to DRAM cycles, and Credo sits in the competitive transport layer. x.com x.com … Show more
Credo trades at 15-18x forward earnings despite 200%-plus accelerating growth because the market treats it as legacy connectivity while its TAM has multiplied. It is taking scale-out share from copper and fiber and is poised for scale-up, and its ALCs match copper's reliability at half the power of laser optics. New products like ZF Optics and OmniConnect CXL memory links, which management expects at $1,000 per GPU, could add about $1B on 1M GPUs, versus $1.3B of mostly AEC revenue this year. … Show more
Kimi K3's engineering workarounds for memory limits should lift demand across AI infrastructure suppliers, and more such innovations are expected. Moving prompt history to CPU memory favors Astera Labs, with a 2027 custom Leo CXL design win, and perhaps Penguin Solutions. NVMe overflow memory favors Phison. Denser racks lift Semtech and Credo interconnects. Mass sandboxes favor JFrog and Cloudflare. Rambus supplies memory buffer chips; cluster migrations favor Lumentum's optical switching. x.com … Show more
Credo should benefit as AI clusters grow, because more computing requires faster, more efficient connections and connectivity is becoming more demanding. x.com
Credo is a solid company whose low-power interconnects between AI servers become more necessary as AI compute grows. If microLED technology actually lands and improves optical module efficiency and density, its moat could get stronger. Filling the chart gap, or even a pullback to the 200-day moving average, would be a good buying opportunity, though Astera Labs was preferred when the two were compared. x.com x.com
Credo offers exposure to a massively growing AI buildout as a major connectivity supplier to hyperscalers and data centers. AI training and inference need thousands of GPUs to communicate through high-speed, lossless links, which Credo provides via electrical cables, optical solutions and retimers. Per Alpha Scope, it fell 18% despite beating estimates, with revenue up 157%, earnings up 231%, raised guidance, a 0.11 PEG, 21% ROIC and almost no debt. x.com