Brian G
Engineer & CFA, Trend-Based Market Analysis
Lumentum and Coherent may be worth buying because Nvidia has just invested $2 billion in each. x.comĀ
NVIDIA-aligned neoclouds have a significantly derisked investment thesis because rival hardware efforts should increase NVIDIA's need for trusted infrastructure partners. Omorogie Alele reports Fractile raised Ā£577 million to challenge NVIDIA and has an early chip purchase agreement with Anthropic. MB Hogan suggests Jensen Huang could help Nebius and CoreWeave secure better credit; that remains a possibility, which seems plausible. x.comĀ x.comĀ
AI bottleneck semiconductor stocks look to have gotten ahead of themselves, with roughly a hundred near-vertical charts where downside now seems to outweigh upside. They are semis and highly cyclical, and many smaller caps may end up trading like meme stocks. A substantial shakeout would offer a better entry. AI, robotics and energy still have years of growth ahead, but chasing these names now is not advisable. x.comĀ x.comĀ x.comĀ x.comĀ x.comĀ
Marvellās acquisition of Lumentum secures the laser supply its scale-up optics and Celestialās most advanced silicon-photonics memory-pooling solution require. Nvidia had bought all of Lumentumās capacity, leaving Marvell unable to provide scale-up optics in its ASIC program. Owning that supply and the IP could give Marvell an advantage over larger accelerator rivals and help it conquer AI accelerators via optics over the long term, despite existing contracts. x.comĀ x.comĀ x.comĀ
Nvidia's CUDA retains developers, putting it among 12 stocks that could dominate the decade ahead. Nebius's GPU rental price rise signals demand; Fabrinet and Credo supply AI connectivity. DraftKings has betting scale; Microsoft has Azure and an OpenAI partnership; Figma anchors design work; Shopify powers stores. TeraWulf pivots power sites to AI leases; Constellation, the largest US nuclear operator, signs big-tech power deals; Meta spends on AI; Uber has autonomous-vehicle partnerships. x.comĀ ā¦ Show more
AI infrastructure bottlenecks could give eight stocks as much as 18x upside. Nvidia supplies frontier-model GPUs; Broadcom and Marvell supply custom silicon and networking; TSMC makes advanced chips; Micron supplies sold-out HBM; Vertiv provides power and cooling; Palantir monetizes enterprise AI; Alphabet spans TPUs, research, cloud and apps. The list tracks where AI infrastructure spending is flowing. x.comĀ x.comĀ
CoreWeave, IREN, Nebius, Corning, Lumentum and Coherent, all recipients of recent Nvidia equity stakes, are a great set of stocks to own. Nvidia has committed $4.6B to CoreWeave for 11%, up to $2.1B to IREN, $2B to Nebius for 8.3%, up to $3.2B to Corning, and $2B each to Lumentum and Coherent. x.comĀ x.comĀ
Seven Lumentum directors buying over $1.1M of shares signals insider confidence in its role in the AI buildout. Lumentum's optical and photonic technologies are used in high-speed networks and data centers, positioning it directly in AI infrastructure beyond GPUs. NVIDIA has also invested $2 billion in Lumentum, and photonics looks like the next leg of the buildout. x.comĀ x.comĀ x.comĀ
Five stocks Nvidia owns, Nokia, Coherent, CoreWeave, Intel and SpaceX, can each rise tenfold and create generational wealth this year. x.comĀ x.comĀ
Networking, power and compute look more durable than cyclical memory in the AI buildout. Lumentum's revenue compounded year after year across the 2010s and 2020s, unlike Micron's; AWS revenue also compounded. Lumentum, Nebius, Bloom Energy and Credo should heavily outperform SanDisk and Micron from here, though AI itself remains heavily doubted. x.comĀ x.comĀ