Feroce Research
Thematic Research, Technical/Macro/Fundamental Analysis & Quantitative Positioning
Citadel clearing out the Situational Awareness positions is good news for IREN, Nebius, Sandisk and Bloom Energy, which had been held hostage by Citadel's volatility-making. Ken Griffin moved surprisingly fast and bought the bottom after spooking the market with rate-hike fears, but in the long run investors in these stocks should feel a sigh of relief. x.com x.comÂ
Open-source models likely wrecked the heavy-capex thesis behind IREN. Debt CDS and falling token prices make the still-bullish view definitely less so. Unlike Roku, a previous long-term hold with a unique, massive user base, low capex and positive free cash flow, IREN lacks a clear path forward; without one, it is better not to hold it. If Warsh remains hawkish, a full exit from IREN is very likely. x.com x.comÂ
IREN's $363 million in GPU-backed financing makes it a bet to survive neocloud consolidation. Elon Musk warned that drying debt markets could kill or consolidate many of the 200-plus neoclouds, leaving only a few survivors; IREN secured funding in that very market. x.comÂ
IREN's predatory management and markedly weaker execution than Nebius make it hard to take seriously while Mike Alfred remains on its board. Barring an oversold bounce, IREN looks cooked big time with more time. x.com x.comÂ
The AI stack's prolonged selloff may have already de-risked it ahead of Anthropic's IPO. The mid-November IPO could mark a bottom rather than trigger another sectorwide selloff like earlier mega-IPOs. Nebius, IREN and Cipher Mining do not look likely to fall much further; the same goes for Applied Optoelectronics and AXT. From June highs, Cipher is down about 73%, IREN 62%, Nebius 45% and WhiteFiber 78%. x.com x.comÂ
IREN's long-term appeal rests on its standing as one of the best vertically integrated AI neoclouds. In the short term, the stock has not been this oversold since 2022. x.comÂ
IREN's worsening fundamentals warrant patience despite its potential. Trailing free cash flow is -$2.45 billion, net income -$703 million and EPS -$1.64 even as revenue has grown; it needs a catalyst change and a positive trend in fundamentals. x.comÂ
Bloom Energy's third beat-and-raise this year makes its selloff look driven by market fear rather than deteriorating business results. A similar sentiment-driven decline after strong results in July marked a bottom before the stock doubled; the setup looks similar now. x.comÂ
Lower leverage puts IREN and especially Nebius in a better position than highly indebted neocloud peers to withstand higher interest rates. Debt plus leases equal 1.9 times IREN's equity and 1.0 times Nebius's, versus 10.3 times for CoreWeave; the comparison also includes colocation providers. x.com x.comÂ
IREN's spending and ongoing financing still weigh on its shares despite a signed Anthropic deal. Its 2027 capex is put at $25-30B and its $6B ATM appears roughly halfway complete. Mirantis has improved fundamentals, but markets likely care more in about six months as revenue approaches and the ATM/capex window passes, as with Nebius after its Meta deal. A risk-off rotation to larger names adds pressure. x.comÂ
IREN looks horrendous on the chart, but institutions are not selling, setting up a big pop to $40+ once everyone gives up. The declines have come on a complete lack of volume. Over the first half of 2026 it saw $250B of high-volume activity and twice failed to make new lows in this area, a textbook long-term accumulation campaign; key institutional supports above still need to be reclaimed to confirm a short-term bullish trend. x.com x.comÂ
