Pegasus
Long/Short Equity Investor
Semiconductors are betting on AI labs whose spending commitments the stock market takes seriously, despite little visibility into what is happening at the labs. They selectively leaked good news for three years, but last week brought the opposite; Anthropic has also delayed an IPO originally slated for before Labor Day. Broadcom CEO Hock Tan warns that enterprise AI spending may yield little learning. x.com x.com x.com
Semiconductors depend on years of continued shortage, and AI labs may struggle to pay for what chipmakers are forecasting. OpenAI looks to be losing share to Anthropic in a market that isn't sticky: the WSJ reported a $40B run rate against Anthropic's $65B ARR, its revenue chief left, it sought a $250B NVIDIA backstop, and it omits operating margins after losing $5.7B last quarter. If lab growth flattens, the market will punish firms with huge capex commitments. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Broadcom's stronger AI business looks cheap for its growth, making it one of the best buys in the market right now. AI chip revenue rose 221% to $16.7B last quarter, yet the stock trades at 19x forward earnings and a 0.35 PEG. Management sees AI revenue near $115B in fiscal 2027 and would raise that outlook if customers secure more land and power. Anthropic is on track to be its largest custom chip customer next year. Wall Street's $529 average target implies about 60% upside. x.com
Anthropic's $63B custom-chip deal bolsters Broadcom's case for growth from custom AI silicon. OpenAI's Jalapeño chip is seen as next, and the AI chip supercycle is just getting started. x.com
Semiconductors could capture scarce spot compute's value if its forward curve holds. Compute trades in deep contango, while chip stocks price in little of that value; near-term moves are unpredictable. That makes the sector very bullish. The earlier lab-funding risk looks less acute: Anthropic should hold nearly $200B cash after its IPO and is operating-cash-flow profitable. Even with 2029 capex cuts, chips look cheap if future buyers do not default. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Broadcom's significant exposure to Anthropic's AI infrastructure spending and custom AI chips adds to its growth case. Annual EPS is projected to rise nearly fourfold from $8.06 LTM to $30.38 by FY2028, while the stock trades roughly 30% below its all-time high. x.com
Broadcom's custom AI chips and networking could drive earnings beyond what its valuation implies over 2-3 years. It is the favorite semiconductor opportunity now, preferred over NVIDIA without replacing it. AI semiconductor revenue is projected at about $58B in FY2026, $115B in FY2027 and potentially $230B in FY2028. At about 17x FY2027 consensus adjusted earnings, risk/reward is compelling if growth materializes; customer commitments add visibility, but delays and financing remain risks. x.com … Show more
Broadcom's reported $63 billion deal to finance AI chips for Anthropic is a long-term bullish catalyst for AI and semiconductor stocks. Kalshi Finance reports the arrangement; the bullish view covers Broadcom, TSMC, Nvidia, Nebius and the SMH and SOXX semiconductor ETFs. x.com
Broadcom's custom silicon business stands to turn Anthropic's IPO funding into chip orders. The cash raised for Anthropic's compute spending would flow down the stack into Broadcom's order book. x.com
Anthropic's compute commitments point to future revenue for Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Broadcom and Nvidia. Its S-1 reports 14-fold revenue growth, positive second-quarter 2026 EBIT and more than $600 billion committed to compute through 2045. The AI trade is alive and well, more than expected, provided demand keeps pace with those commitments. x.com
Semiconductors could stay undersupplied for a long time as more capable AI per dollar creates more uses and drives compute demand. Micron and NVIDIA trade at low forward P/Es because investors fear peak cyclical earnings, yet current earnings show no slowdown. Shortages may worsen as AI adoption spreads, though the industry could remain cyclical; a reversal of the forced rollover trade is hoped for, not assured. x.com x.com x.com
AI skepticism leaves Nvidia, Broadcom and Micron looking cheap on forward earnings. Their forward P/E ratios are 14, 18 and 5, respectively; the market may eventually stop doubting AI. x.com
