Sp3cul8r
Stock Trader, Author of Trading Toward Financial Freedom
Long-dated call buying and $150 put selling suggest institutions are positioned for upside in Nebius into 2027, a stronger bullish read than Marvell. Unusual Whales data show over $25 million in two call blocks, though one may be a roll, and over $12 million in $150 puts sold. The 19% two-day bounce lacked confirming options inflows, so Nebius could retest $170 before Nov. 10 earnings, with a roughly 18% implied move. x.comÂ
Nebius can do well while its convertible debt is not yet due, unlike CoreWeave, which faces immediate liquidity trouble. Pain may come when Nebius's convertibles mature; it is nowhere near CoreWeave's current default risk. A $3,000 share target goes too far. x.com x.comÂ
Record Robinhood buying into CoreWeave's decline is a warning for bulls. CoreWeave is the most obvious short: LJKawa reports record five-day net purchases even as the stock fell. Only a below-market takeover by Nvidia looks capable of keeping CoreWeave out of bankruptcy; investors are refusing to pay up for AI data centers. x.com x.comÂ
CoreWeave's team and those at the table have thought through a structure with enormous precision that is forgiving in many situations. Their money-making record makes betting against the team unattractive, despite earlier skepticism about valuation and the need to go public. A feed full of bears and a falling stock do not change that assessment. x.comÂ
CoreWeave's building buyer pressure despite deteriorating sentiment points to an upside reversal. Every time this divergence has appeared in the stock, it has reversed to the upside. x.comÂ
Nebius can fall with neocloud peers because the market prices sector risk rather than each company's quality. Nebius and SPCX are better companies than 99% of the others, yet Nebius would not be immune to a WOLF or CoreWeave default; some weaker names may never recover. x.comÂ
Nebius's partly customer-funded buildout makes its financing structure preferable to CoreWeave's as borrowing risks rise. CoreWeave's unsecured bond yields have approached 15%, while hotter CPI raises the possibility of more Fed hikes. Nebius had about $8B cash at Q2, expects over $9B in 2026 customer prepayments and secured a $775M facility at SOFR + 2.50%. Its $20-25B capex plan, negative free cash flow, dilution and premium valuation still demand attractive returns after costs. x.com x.comÂ
Nebius is a better option than CoreWeave going forward because its balance sheet is stronger. x.comÂ
CoreWeave looks like a poor long because its debt now exceeds its market capitalization. x.comÂ
Hyperscaler borrowing could raise Nebius and CoreWeave's financing costs as investors favor safer debt. Microsoft reportedly plans to borrow. Nebius has prepayments and cheaper funding; CoreWeave has more debt. Nebius is strongly preferred if credit tightens. If rates fall and CoreWeave turns its $104B backlog into revenue, EBITDA and cash flow, it could have significantly more upside. Google expects more third-party compute use in Q4; Microsoft cites delayed deliveries. x.com x.com x.comÂ