HK
Deep-Tech Stock Research, ASIC Background at Synopsys
Vicor's accelerating business and operating leverage make it look like an incredible winner. Revenue and operating margins jumped in the latest quarter; CEO Patrizio Vinciarelli said two additional sites would enable nearly 5x Fab-1's capacity across three fabs, citing demand and industry trends. But QQQ could fall to 660 before a meaningful bounce, so Vicor is not a buy in this tape. x.com x.comÂ
Vicor is no longer a buy after a 5x run in a short span. The original thesis still stands: delivering 4,000 amps at the chip level requires vertical power delivery, Vicor controls the IP and every power semiconductor maker would have to pay it a toll. But the move has been too large too fast to justify buying here. x.comÂ
Celestica's cheap TPU exposure offers upside, but its low margins and smaller moat than Vicor's make it a trade rather than a large core holding. It will probably reach $400-$500 over time; $400 next year looks likely. An attached analyst note expects scrutiny of a cut in 2026 free-cash-flow guidance from $600M to $460M due mainly to working capital; it warns that 2027 free cash flow could turn negative if working-capital investment stays high alongside $1.5B-$2B of capex. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Vicor's efficient delivery of key power modules is part of the case for Cerebras meeting and exceeding its 2028-29 numbers. As models improve, more security breaches and deployments should make Cerebras look increasingly like a cybersecurity play. Its revenue ramp looks constrained by capacity, not yet by demand. Bullish on Cerebras but cautious on the broader market, with no short-term earnings prediction. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Vicor's patent licensing now earns twice the profit of its factory, making the once-doubted royalty engine its larger profit contributor. CVResearch_ reports $66.6 million of royalties last quarter, versus $21.7 million a year earlier; per its report, the CFO expects at least $43 million next quarter without new licenses. Rough market conditions have battered the stock despite that fundamental improvement. x.com x.comÂ
Semiconductor earnings will be good, supporting a likely run into Q3 results. The group looks oversold, and the Anthropic/CoreWeave news is noise. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
The Nasdaq 100 already effectively prices in a severe semiconductor recession. QQQ trades at about 20 times 2027 EPS versus a 10-year average forward P/E near 25; halving 2027 estimates for Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, Micron, Lam Research and Applied Materials would lift that only to 24.5. If the market instead traded at 20 times in that scenario, downside would be about 20%. Capex seems unlikely to be cut materially unless growth at AI labs such as Anthropic decelerates dramatically. x.comÂ
Vicor's AI power-delivery royalties now have evidence of recurring usage, while funded fab expansion offers a path past capacity constraints. Q3 royalties reached $66.6M, including catch-ups; management set a conservative Q4 baseline of at least $43M without new deals, and early orders from the same AI OEM confirm ongoing payments. Backlog reached $406M, and planned Fab 2 and Fab 3 sites could bring capacity to nearly 5x Fab 1, with initial Fab 2 equipment targeted for Q2 2027. x.comÂ
Vicor's licensing model is delivering: it raised Q3 guidance for the second time in nine days, now expecting more than 30% sequential revenue growth, up from more than 20% and about 10% before, on higher royalties from its first non-exclusive Vertical Power Delivery license. Every rack shipping with its vertical power delivery pays Vicor whether or not it builds the module. From Q2's $143.4M that puts Q3 above $186M, and high-margin royalties should lift earnings more than revenue. x.comÂ
Vicor stands to capture demand for high-density power delivery as power conversion moves closer to the AI processor, with royalties as early optional upside. On September 30 Vicor raised Q3 growth guidance from over 20% to over 30% because VPD royalties beat expectations, as Delta, Eaton, EPC and others showed 800VDC systems and converters with fewer conversion stages. Vicor expects to finish modernizing FAB1 by year-end, expanding capacity for high-density modules, with FAB2 to follow. x.comÂ
Vicor's purchase of land for more fabs is a demand signal no guidance could ever match. Per @joedab12, Vicor bought a second building with land for one or two more fabs, plus another site with room for two. CEO Patrizio Vinciarelli said in June that first-generation vertical power delivery is about 15-20% of 2026 revenue and will jump substantially in 2027, and that second-generation VPD will be filling a multiplicity of fabs. x.comÂ
Vicor raised its Q3 sequential revenue growth guidance again, from more than 20% to more than 30%, which explains why the stock held strong at its $280 pivot despite fears across the rest of the market. x.comÂ
