Yimin X
Founder of YX Insights, Ex-FX/Rates Market Maker
Micron's record GAAP gross margin is a reason for caution, because margins peak when supply is tightest and demand most exuberant, as the stock did in Q4 2000 and Q4 2018. The latest quarter was extreme: cost of goods sold rose just $0.8 billion, DRAM revenue rose 27% and NAND 42% quarter on quarter. The key detail is that FQ4 was the first quarter where pricing slowed sharply, with DRAM prices up a high-teens percentage against the low 60s in FQ3. x.com
Hynix's sold-out memory supply supports expectations for big numbers from Micron, still trading at 5x forward earnings. Hynix says its HBM and DRAM chips are sold out until 2029 and a chip shortage is likely to continue into 2030. Big numbers and capital return are expected after Micron reports in December. x.com
Memory remains structurally scarce because SK hynix says conventional DRAM and HBM are practically sold out through 2029, while customers request roughly twice the HBM volume it can produce. Long-term agreements cover more than half of 2027 and 2028 capacity, and the company expects the supply-demand imbalance to persist through 2030. x.com x.com
Memory makers' long-term agreements cannot protect pricing when buyers regain leverage. The market underestimates downside even before a price collapse; SK hynix's agreements price within market-linked ranges, per @jukan05. The agreements will be ripped apart when the market turns to buyers, at the latest when China ramps. SK hynix, Samsung, Micron, SanDisk and Kioxia are exposed. x.com
SK hynix's enforceable long-term supply commitments add visibility to memory profits. It says DRAM and HBM volumes through 2029 are effectively sold out, with agreements covering over half of 2027-28 capacity while retaining pricing flexibility. Operating profit beat expectations at $62.8B versus about $58B, and SK hynix announced $75B in 2026 shareholder returns. It expects the memory shortage to persist through 2030. x.com
Prepaid contracts and demand-paced fabs weaken a broad 2028 memory-glut case. SK hynix says over half its 2027-28 capacity is signed with deposits; 'sold out through 2029' includes negotiations. Samsung targets 60-70% contracted capacity. Micron's three projects begin output in 2H28; tooling follows demand. Reuters says CXMT's 20-30%-yield HBM3E may ship this year to export-restricted Chinese buyers, but performs like older HBM3. Commodity DRAM risks 2028-29 oversupply; NAND could ease in 2H27. … Show more
Buying the DRAM dip looks too risky now because CXMT's ambitious next-generation 4F plan and SK hynix's aggressive production expansion raise supply concerns for memory stocks such as Micron, SK hynix and Samsung. CXMT is unlikely to become a serious competitive threat, but it could still weigh on storage-stock sentiment. x.com x.com
Tight memory-chip supply through 2030 is good for Micron. SK hynix expects the shortage to last that long and reports a 632% profit jump. x.com
Micron and SK hynix pricing in a memory shortage past 2030 extends the memory-cycle case beyond the Street's 2028 expectation. SK hynix's record quarter adds evidence: per Wall St Engine, revenue rose 328% to $78.9B, operating profit rose 632% to $62.8B, and operating margin hit 80%. Agentic and physical AI could add demand as they roll out. x.com x.com
Chinese memory makers YMTC and CXMT are using the AI-driven shortage to build a bigger competitive threat to Micron, Samsung and SK hynix. Per DigiTimes, both are scaling capacity with state backing to gain share; they are making inroads in PCs, and CXMT reportedly plans to ramp HBM3 later this year. The worst shortages ever seen have lifted prices only temporarily. Legacy DRAM makers face demand and supply pressure, and the market will eventually discount a far more competitive market. x.com
Micron, SanDisk and SK Hynix look very bullish because Samsung says the memory shortage will worsen in 2027. x.com