FIRED Up Wealth
Motley Fool Analyst & Investment Educator
Fastly's overall offering falls far short of Cloudflare's, and the market has already rewarded the strongest cybersecurity players. Fastly is a more modern CDN than Akamai and has some cybersecurity exposure. Buying is off the table for now, though if forced to buy one stock, Fastly would probably be the pick. x.com
Fastly is off the screen for a while: someone liquidated it in size, making it a controversial name when there are many better setups elsewhere. The best charts don't keep checking back to the 21-day EMA, and only the first check back is worth buying. x.com
Fastly's role with Meta Muse looks bigger than analysts have noted, which is bullish for a stock at 5x NTM revenue versus Cloudflare's 38x. In 738 controlled tests run by another investor, 29.3% of Muse agent traffic came from Fastly, versus 37.0% from Cloudflare, 19.4% from Meta and 14.4% from AWS. x.com
Fastly looks cheap at under 5x sales, but its growth is already down to 15% and slowing, which does not look like the makings of a winner. This is a preliminary view pending deeper work. x.com
Cloudflare isn't worth buying while the market resets software valuations, and the bottom is far off. Even a company this strong, with a great story as the security tool everyone needs in the AI era, gets hammered on any slightly disappointing result. Software isn't useless; it just doesn't deserve these valuations, and owning it under a negative narrative is miserable. Jensen Huang's upbeat SaaS comments may not reflect his real view. x.com x.com
Fastly could really rerate on a blowout earnings report, with a low market cap and probable catalysts ahead from agentic AI use. Its daily and weekly charts are setting up well with excellent structure. x.com
Cloudflare has one of the most ludicrous valuations relative to its actual performance. @ecommerceshares notes it has run since 2009 yet still has a -10% operating margin, surviving because fund managers keep buying the new stock it issues every quarter, equal to 18% of revenue, so breakeven is never required. x.com
Super Micro's management cannot be trusted, which is reason enough to stay away. Its claims, especially the "$60B in backlog," deserve heavy skepticism, and the company now sees fiscal Q4 revenue near the low end of its $11B-$12.5B guidance. Reliable management that turns words into action and does not engineer the books is a core requirement, and SMCI fails it. x.com x.com
Fastly is probably a long, even on the security angle alone. With its points of presence and edge network, it should only be a matter of time before its numbers are affected more meaningfully. x.com
Fastly could see meaningful upside as personal AI agents drive a surge in traffic and security needs at a low valuation. At a $3.8B market cap it trades at a far lower multiple than Cloudflare. Security, now 25% of revenue, grows 40% on DDoS protection, bot management and API discovery. Sell-side estimates of 12% growth for three years, with security slowing to 20% and 16% in 2027-28, look easy to beat at next week's investor day, where the CFO will give a multi-year framework and new products. … Show more