Jonah Lupton
CEO & CIO of FirstWave Capital, Long-Biased Growth
Coupang is a phenomenal buy because a board member just bought $136 million of stock, probably the largest non-founder insider purchase ever seen, and there is only one reason to do that. It trades at about 20x next-12-month EBITDA, with EBITDA expected to grow about 30% a year for the next few years, though margins compress slightly this year on Taiwan expansion. Versus Sea, Coupang looks a little cheaper after being overly punished for its data breach. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Coupang looks like a long-term buy on a typical reversal pattern coupled with a large insider purchase. Per @BourbonInsider, a director just bought 7M shares for about $136.6M at prices of $18.48 to $19. x.comÂ
Coupang has built a logistics network that is incredibly difficult to replicate, leaving a lot of room to turn that scale into better economics over time. x.comÂ
Coupang insiders bought a massive $158 million of stock over the last three days, a whale worth tailing. x.comÂ
Amazon's weak retail growth has shaken the earlier buy case. Online-store sales rose just 2% year over year, and the retail numbers look so poor that it is no longer clear at what price the shares are a buy. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Coupang counts Kevin Warsh, a board member since 2019, among its shareholders, a signal that justifies buying more. x.com x.comÂ
Coupang is too cheap here and offers great risk/reward, with heavy insider buying signaling confidence. Director Neil Mehta bought $138M of stock this week, which @Mr_Derivatives tallies at $158M over three days. It also remained one of Stanley Druckenmiller's biggest holdings last quarter, when he likely added more. x.com x.comÂ
Sea looks super interesting at 18x forward EPS against 30%+ EPS CAGR for 2027-2028. Past periods of heavy investment worked well for Sea, making market punishment for new investment exciting. Cloud-entry capex and limited communication, fierce competition, and uncertainty around the fintech IPO remain concerns. x.com x.comÂ
With its regulatory fine overhang done, Coupang wants to get to $20. If it gets there, it should head to the mid-$20s, though this call could be wrong. Korea is doing well, and the semiconductor gold rush will hopefully help. x.comÂ
Coupang's risk-reward looks favorable after the stock had a chance to bottom out. The latest news should be a big relief and quite bullish after outsized volume, and Morgan Stanley and UBS upgraded it with $27 and $28 targets. Having already issued vouchers and warned on its numbers, Coupang has a framework for recovery, with an unlevered FCF yield near 2.94% needing only user growth and a revenue rebound to hold. A concern is Korean rivals such as Naver taking share. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
MercadoLibre is worth owning for 20 years because its marketplace, payments, credit and advertising reinforce one another, with a long reinvestment runway in underpenetrated Latin American e-commerce and digital finance. Quarterly revenue grew 50% despite its scale, making about 40x earnings very reasonable for its quality. A deep management bench under CEO Ariel Szarfsztejn reduces founder dependence. Risks include credit underwriting, competition from Sea and Amazon, currencies and regulation. … Show more
