DON7SPY
Industrial Engineer, MBA Finance, Data/Supply-Chain Background, Options Analysis
Cerebras is absurdly valued at about $50 billion against roughly $865 million of full-year revenue and $194 million for the quarter. Overpriced listings like this will hurt young investors and push them to give up on stock investing. x.comÂ
Cerebras is difficult for retail investors to understand, and management has not done a great job explaining its business since going public. It deserves more attention as the most direct AI IPO of 2026, but going long Cerebras is hard to justify when Nvidia can be owned instead. x.comÂ
Cerebras is now worth buying after its shares fell into the previously stated $60-$120 buying range. The earlier concern was an out-of-control valuation and providing liquidity to insiders at much higher prices; the shares shown are about $117. x.comÂ
Cerebras is likely heading lower after terrible earnings, with share unlocks about to add supply. Its valuation was so stretched that it couldn't afford a miss, and it apparently missed; a lot of hope was already built into the price. It could trade around $150 soon. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Cerebras still needs to come down further before it is worth buying. IPO stocks often rise sharply at first, then fall, and can take a long time to return to their original value, so entering at an expensive price right after the IPO is unappealing. The view is not entirely negative on Cerebras, and it should not be called a direct Nvidia rival. x.comÂ
Cerebras and its customers likely accounted for many of the chip limitations alleged in the short report, so the report may be wrong. This is a suspicion without specific insight. Short interest rose 40.7% into the report to 19.86 million shares, or 8.4% of float. x.com x.comÂ
Cerebras Systems is overpriced by retail buyers at around $400 a share, about 2.16 times its $185 IPO price. That price was set by the investment banks, management and institutional analysts, who know the business best, after the roadshow. x.comÂ
Cerebras's share price already assumes years of flawless execution, so investors can be right about the company long term and still lose money. Two customers make up 86% of revenue, it posted a $146 million operating loss in 2025, its GAAP profit came from accounting gains, and it trades at 111x revenue. The wafer-scale technology, 15x faster AI inference and $20B+ OpenAI compute deal make the bull case real, but the price leaves no margin for early-stage setbacks. x.comÂ
Vicor's efficient delivery of key power modules is part of the case for Cerebras meeting and exceeding its 2028-29 numbers. As models improve, more security breaches and deployments should make Cerebras look increasingly like a cybersecurity play. Its revenue ramp looks constrained by capacity, not yet by demand. Bullish on Cerebras but cautious on the broader market, with no short-term earnings prediction. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Cerebras is not worth owning at about $90 billion in value on roughly $500 million of revenue. A post the author replies to adds that it has only two customers and argues investment banks are using retail investors for exit liquidity. x.comÂ