Mitchell Martan
Investment Researcher for The Long Investor, Economics/Finance Background
ServiceNow's double beat undercuts the claim that AI is disrupting its software. Claude, the leading AI platform, holds ServiceNow as the largest position in its portfolio. Per @wallstengine, CEO Bill McDermott said enterprises are unlikely to build their own agents, which would cost 5x to 10x more than running one on ServiceNow. He added that AI creates more IT activity, seat compression is no worry and 50% of net new business is already non-seat-based. x.com x.comÂ
ServiceNow is using AI to remove the 'implementation tax' that drove its stock down as much as 60%, turning its biggest weakness into a strength. Its Claude-powered Build Agent lets non-technical staff create workflows and apps in plain English, and it now deploys from tools like Cursor and Claude Code into ServiceNow's governed runtime. Now Assist ACV is tracking past $1.5B versus a $1B target, million-dollar customers grew over 130%, and renewals held at 97%. Its moats remain. x.comÂ
ServiceNow's AI contract growth and improving free cash flow margin make the 18% selloff excessive and its shares a massive discount among leading enterprise AI companies. AI net-new ACV rose 65%; its 2026 AI ACV target rose to $1.7B, up 70% from the start of the year. Adjusted operating margin slipped to 32.5% from 33.5%, but free cash flow margin rose to 20% from 17.5%. Acquisition costs, stock compensation and severance largely drove the GAAP decline. x.com x.com x.comÂ
ServiceNow's slowing contracted-revenue growth suggests agentic AI and growing open-source alternatives may be reducing the need for its products. Q3 operating margin fell to 9.4% from 16.8% a year earlier, net income dropped, and cRPO growth slowed from 25% to 20.5%; Q4 guidance implies 18.5%. x.comÂ
ServiceNow is proving that AI is a tailwind rather than a threat to its business. It launched Flow, an AI IT service-desk agent companies can deploy without building their own agents in house. The market had assumed companies would build such agents themselves and replace ServiceNow; it may turn out to be the exact opposite. x.comÂ
ServiceNow is priced as if AI agents will replace it, yet its numbers show AI becoming its biggest growth driver. Q2 revenue grew 24% to $3.9B, faster than last quarter, earnings beat by almost 5% and full-year guidance rose for the second time. Its AI products crossed $1B in annual contract value, renewals were 98%, and $1M+ deals rose 40% to 123. AI infrastructure costs have squeezed margins slightly, and AI shrinking software budgets over 5-10 years is a fair bear risk. x.comÂ
ServiceNow's seat business is being cannibalized faster than AI deals can replace it. Next-quarter cRPO growth is guided to 18.5%, down from 20.5%, while subscription growth was 24.5% two quarters ago; agentic usage on its platform is up 13x. Management points to AI deal value heading to $1.7bn, against a roughly $16bn subscription business. The slowdown leaves more pain ahead. Underweight, $90 target. x.com x.comÂ
ServiceNow keeps selling more to existing customers over time, one of the biggest reasons to be bullish long term. Its 2011 customer cohort's annual contract value grew from an indexed $100 to $3,730 by Q3 2026, or 37.3x, even including customer losses. x.comÂ
ServiceNow's unexpected expense surge makes its rich valuation more vulnerable in a struggling software sector. Revenue rose 21%, but spending drove an EPS miss and one quarter of guided cRPO deceleration; wider market conditions could hurt near term. The 20% selloff looks excessive, and few software companies should benefit as much from AI. Management could deliver over 3-5 years, though the stock is only close to a buy again now; below $100 looks good for the long term. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
ServiceNow's gross profit and expense trends show its underlying business deteriorating despite the AI revenue pitch. Quarterly gross profit grew just over 10% year over year, possibly its slowest pace ever, while expenses rose across the board and profit weakened materially. Relabeling revenue as AI has not changed the trend in total sales. x.comÂ
ServiceNow's AI growth has debunked the "AI destroys software" fear, proving it an AI enabler rather than a victim. AI contract value is beating expectations, with AI revenue on track to clear $1.5B by end-2026 and ramp toward $9B+ by 2030, while subscription revenue compounds at 20%+. Pricing is shifting from seats toward outcomes, retention is best in class, and it pairs tens of billions in revenue with exceptional free cash flow. A deeper Tech Mahindra partnership adds enterprise AI reach. … Show more