Broadcom's photonics exposure is getting too little market attention, supporting a bullish view of the stock. x.com 

Photonics stocks such as Lumentum, Coherent and Applied Optoelectronics look vulnerable because the trade is far too crowded. Today's reversal in the space could be the start of the next leg down. x.com 

Soitec has room to re-rate because it is one of the only photonics names not yet priced for perfect execution and market demand. Large investment banks made three target upgrades over the past month, with EUR 200-300 targets and buy ratings. x.com 

Applied Optoelectronics' case now hinges on visible production progress. Its drop on OpenAI's revenue run-rate figures reflected an accounting question, not any change in laser or memory supply, per Carrio Research. If AAOI fails again next quarter and pushes its timelines out another quarter, it will be ugly. x.com 

Broadcom's diverse networking exposure makes it one of the best positioned in the theme. The market has overlooked it year to date. Optical DSPs, Tomahawk and Jericho underpin the view; Tomahawk 6/7 ramps in 2027, and Tomahawk Ultra and optical DSPs should accelerate growth. New XPU customers and extended hyperscaler deals add to earnings upside and an eventual re-rating. Risks remain, and weak semiconductor flows warrant caution about calling a bottom. x.com 

Soitec is an attractive name in the photonics supply chain. Per @HyperTechInvest, it trades at 14x forward EV/EBITDA, the lowest among key photonics suppliers, versus 33x for Coherent, 45x for Lumentum and 120x for Applied Optoelectronics. @zephyr_z9 flags a risk of demand destruction in mobile. x.com  x.com 

Photonics stocks look like a crowded rotation rather than a better bet than memory. Photonics has a smaller addressable market than memory and moves with it anyway. Buyers are driven by recency bias after Applied Optoelectronics' 90% recovery, traders liquidated in memory seeking higher-risk bets, and smaller companies with higher multiples. @therogueoracle adds that these stocks had massive runs and have not pulled back nearly enough, so they are more likely to chop sideways and down. x.com  … Show more

STMicroelectronics offers rare asymmetry for a large cap: a bear case in line with the S&P 500, a slightly better base case and a wildly better bull case. 2026 marked an inflection in its data-center business, with a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar Amazon agreement and guidance raised from $1B before 2030 to well above $2B in 2027. A base case with a modest AI business implies 15% annual growth through 2030; if photonics, power and robotics reach a third of revenue, 30-50%. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Soitec is now a bet on its future photonics ramp, since the next few quarters will be bad too. Buying today means buying that photonics story, with the weaker mobile segment carried along with it. x.com 

Astera Labs' valuation has gotten nuts given its medium- and long-term competitive and technology risks, especially next to NVIDIA and Broadcom. The aixPhotonics acquisition was smart, but even if those optical offerings ramp well, they are unlikely to offset the long-term cannibalization of retimers, AECs and similar products by NPO and CPO. x.com