Jonah Lupton
CEO & CIO of FirstWave Capital, Long-Biased Growth
Astera Labs no longer looks expensive after falling 50% from its highs, trading below 35x NTM EBITDA with EBITDA expected to grow at a 60% CAGR for several years. Revenue is growing 105% YoY, with growth expected to accelerate for the next 2-3 quarters as margins expand. The stock is testing key support at its September 2025 highs, just above the 0.618 Fibonacci level and 200-day EMA. It is worth a look if the AI infrastructure buildout continues as planned. x.comÂ
Astera Labs is accelerating revenue growth from 104% to 140-160%; it is not cheap, but few companies offer 150% growth with 36% net margins. Q2 revenue of $392M beat the $360M estimate, and Q3 guidance of $540-560M versus $417M expected implies 140% growth; another beat like Q2's 8.9% would put Q3 near 150%. Sell-side estimates for the next 12 months need to rise at least 20-25%. Any selling may be profit-taking after a 50% rally. x.comÂ
Astera Labs' key fundamentals are positive and growing nicely while the stock sits 35% off its highs, consolidating back toward its 200-day moving average. Ideal buying or accumulation is near or just above that average. x.comÂ
Astera Labs' growth is outrunning its share price: after recent earnings, it trades at nearly half the valuation it had at the same share price before. x.comÂ
Astera Labs looks relatively expensive because similarly fast-growing AI infrastructure names trade at much lower multiples. Broadcom and Nvidia are at 14x, Credo at 15x and Lumentum at 18x; comparable peers look 50-80% cheaper. Astera is a great company and not necessarily expensive in absolute terms. Its roughly 2x multiple over Credo may persist, but the setup looks harder; with no valuation support, it could fall 50% if weakness continues. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Astera Labs is an invisible hero of AI, as its retimers and fabric switches let thousands of GPUs operate as one massive supercomputer. Demand for its solutions has grown manyfold over the past year, driving explosive revenue growth, despite last year's fears that efficient models like DeepSeek would hurt AI infrastructure names. x.comÂ
Astera Labs is still worth holding because revenue keeps doubling year over year at 75% gross margins. x.comÂ
Astera Labs is an amazing business, but its valuation is getting quite pricey. x.comÂ
Astera Labs' chip connects every GPU in AI servers, positioning it to ride a data-center buildout that is just getting started. Quarterly revenue reached $392 million in Q2 2026, versus $65 million in Q1 2024. x.comÂ
Astera Labs is being re-rated as investors see it as AI scale-up and scale-out connectivity architecture, not a copper or retimer company. Scorpio is in AWS Trainium 4 and AMD MI500 systems and should ramp with hyperscaler custom ASICs, while COSMOS software acts as a data-center nervous system. A 76% gross margin reflects hyperscaler trust, system complexity and software binding. $360-370 now looks fairly likely soon; a break above the long-term trendline in mid-June would be a spot to trim. … Show more
Astera Labs is an incredible business, but its price leaves little margin of safety. Even an amazing decade, with revenue reaching $20B at 26% annual growth from about $1.9B, a 35% operating margin and a 30x multiple, makes it a roughly $158B company, about 3.6x from $44B, or around 13% a year before dilution. Slower revenue, lower margins, a lost customer, hyperscaler insourcing or tougher competition would erode that. Buying at half the price would make the risk/reward look amazing. x.com … Show more
Astera Labs is on track for nearly 3.5x EPS growth in two years as AI data centers need faster connectivity between GPUs. Revenue is expected to grow from $853M to over $3B by 2027 and EPS from $1.84 to $6.40, showing serious EPS acceleration. Technically, the stock has a three-month base and a bull flag. x.com x.comÂ
