Mitchell Martan
Investment Researcher for The Long Investor, Economics/Finance Background
AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, Firefly Aerospace and Intuitive Machines are about to get a nice boost from SpaceX raising its target IPO valuation above $2 trillion, per Bloomberg as cited by @KobeissiLetter. That valuation would make SpaceX bigger than all but five companies in the S&P 500. x.comÂ
A stronger SpaceX could lift the wider space-stock basket, including AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, Redwire, Planet Labs, Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace and Voyager Technologies. Per DeItaone, JPMorgan raised its SpaceX price target from $240 to $500 while maintaining Overweight. The seven space stocks rose alongside SpaceX after hours. Their initial post-IPO selloff was followed by macro-driven weakness, not further weakness caused by SpaceX. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Space stocks could regain high-beta flows as SpaceX lockups end and a probable late-November Anthropic IPO threatens AI stocks, much as SpaceX's IPO hurt space names. Hedge funds are overexposed to the Magnificent Seven and underexposed or max short low-quality high beta; falling rates and toppy oil could make the rotation painful for them through 2027. AST SpaceMobile could benefit as intermittent service triggers agreements and Blue Origin possibly returns to the pad in six weeks. x.com x.comÂ
Rocket Lab's $3B at-the-market offering shows it needs investor cash because it has no real earnings or path to profitability, and it should have raised $10-15B while the window lasts. Selling stock at such a high valuation is the only way to sustain the next 18-24 months, and the coming SpaceX IPO will most likely be the sell event for the entire space sector. x.com x.comÂ
The orbital economy is far too large for only SpaceX to win, making space stocks the easiest 100x opportunity yet. By 2050-2070, every business on Earth could have a counterpart in space; some public companies may fail, but the few winners could create enormous wealth. The easy money is over, so AST SpaceMobile, Firefly Aerospace, Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, Intuitive Machines, MDA Space and SpaceX belong in a separate retirement account that is never traded, not a price-action trade. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab are setting up for potential breakouts on news of the SpaceX IPO. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab and other space stocks face being dragged toward zero by SpaceX's stock drop. With SpaceX valued above $1 trillion, it can buy them out with all-equity offers, the mega-cap way, and that is already happening. x.comÂ
Space stocks such as Rocket Lab, Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace and BlackSky move together because funds buy exposure to a narrative rather than single names. As with semiconductors, once the space theme gains traction, money flows into everything in that bucket. x.com x.comÂ
Investors rotating into cheaper stocks with more upside should ultimately benefit Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. Both have already suffered major drawdowns. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab makes little sense to buy over SpaceX, whose IPO is priced at a similar share price with far larger revenue. SpaceX targets $135 a share with $18.7B of revenue, while Rocket Lab trades at $115 with $600M. x.comÂ
Listed space stocks such as Satellogic, BlackSky, Voyager, Redwire, Intuitive Machines, Planet Labs, AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab are the plays ahead of the SpaceX IPO. AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab are favorites and still look healthy on the charts despite recent pullbacks. @sunxliao notes the group ranges from about $0.7B to $39B in market cap versus a roughly $1.75 trillion SpaceX IPO valuation, a gap he expects to deliver big returns in coming months. x.comÂ
