DON7SPY
Industrial Engineer, MBA Finance, Data/Supply-Chain Background, Options Analysis
CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks look like shorts for November 2026 or March 2027 because their valuations far outrun their growth. CrowdStrike, at a $200B market cap, still has negative net income and trades at 40x sales while growing 22-25%, making it the more overvalued of the two. Palo Alto, at $285B, trades at 280x forward earnings and 27x sales while growing barely 16%. A reply notes CrowdStrike's cumulative GAAP EPS over ten years is negative. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Anthropic and OpenAI's inevitable move into cybersecurity threatens CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks' valuations. They look like the market's biggest bubble stocks right now; CrowdStrike trades at 40x ARR despite 25% growth and negative GAAP EBIT. x.com x.comÂ
CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks are at all-time highs despite no real signs that AI is boosting cybersecurity, while Zscaler tumbled as mixed guidance overshadowed strong Q3 results. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike may distinguish itself from an expensive cybersecurity group by showing more breakneck growth at earnings next month. Fortinet's slowing product revenue exposed how much relentless execution investors had priced into the group's extreme multiples, pulling CrowdStrike down in sympathy. CrowdStrike remains in a higher tier than Fortinet, which itself ranks above SentinelOne. x.com x.comÂ
CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks need 50%-plus growth to deliver even a 10% IRR over a realistic horizon, but almost no conceivable case gets them there. They feel as dumb as Zoom and Peloton in 2021. Even if revenue doubles over four to five years, Palo Alto would still trade at 10x revenue and CrowdStrike at 20x, leaving little prospect of a real IRR; Palo Alto is growing in the teens today. x.com x.com x.comÂ
CrowdStrike will need a game-changing report or will probably see a sell-the-news reaction. Palo Alto Networks gave up most of its after-hours gains on a solid but not game-changing beat after a 60% run from its April lows. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks should be enormous winners as agentic AI makes cybersecurity every enterprise's top priority, even ahead of AI investment. Threats from rogue internal agents and adversaries mean firms will rush to upgrade security, move to best-of-breed vendors and sharply raise budgets. Expected acceleration at leaders like CrowdStrike over the next 2-6 quarters looks far too low. CrowdStrike is the most advanced; Palo Alto is also favored, though some easy money is made. … Show more
CrowdStrike at 40x forward sales is hard to take seriously as a best idea into 2027. x.comÂ
SentinelOne appears undervalued relative to its expected revenue growth. Analysts forecast 19.2% NTM revenue growth, versus 23.2% for CrowdStrike, which trades at a premium on forward EV/sales. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike stands out over Palo Alto Networks for 2026 because it has higher sales and EPS growth and stronger projections, while the two have similar charts. x.comÂ
SentinelOne should be crushed because it offers the same sort of product as CrowdStrike, just worse, and CrowdStrike's flywheel keeps widening the moat between them. The open question is whether cybersecurity is a follow-the-leader market or supports multiple long-term winners, with niche players such as Rubrik and Zscaler and formidable ones such as Cloudflare and Palo Alto Networks. x.comÂ