Finn Stockinger
Equity Analyst & Investor, Technology Research
ams OSRAM's pivot to digital photonics could look remarkably cheap in hindsight if micro-photodiodes and AR microLEDs scale as AI hardware shifts to optics. Its micro-photodiode arrays target parallel optics in AI clusters, reusing high-volume microLED packaging. Q2 revenue of €805M and a 16.9% adjusted EBITDA margin hit the top of guidance; core semis grew 13% like-for-like, with €1.6B of design wins. Refinancing cut interest by about €40M, though 2026 remains a transition year. x.com
ams OSRAM has turned from a failed Apple supplier into a high-conviction AI photonics turnaround, though success depends on the 2027 rollout of optical interconnects. Its slow-and-wide VCSEL approach spreads data across many slower lanes, cutting heat in AI clusters. Q1 revenue of EUR 796 million and a 16.5% adjusted EBITDA margin hit the top half of guidance, cash is EUR 1.3 billion and an Infineon sale adds about EUR 570 million. Risks are Malaysian production and cash burn through 2026. x.com
ams-OSRAM's €570M sale of its non-optical sensor unit to Infineon is a key catalyst: it roughly halves debt and frees resources for its pivot into AI photonics such as MicroLED, after legacy units kept it from focusing on AI growth. Its CEO says photonics revenue could come as early as 2027, probably slightly optimistic. MicroLED is a niche contrarian to mainstream CPO, but ams-OSRAM has rare high-volume MicroLED manufacturing experience. It stays a high risk-reward bet on uncertain adoption. … Show more
MicroLED's poor prospects and growing expert enthusiasm for VCSEL could put ams OSRAM on more investors' radars. An ams OSRAM optical-interconnect executive says a 1.6T active linear cable was demonstrated using the company's micro-emitter engine with Credo's help, and their short-reach micro-optics partnership continues. x.com x.com x.com
ams-OSRAM is a dying company because its core LED lighting business has been annihilated by Chinese competition. It makes both LEDs and VCSELs, but most of its business is still LED. x.com
Rising 1.6T switching demand favors optical suppliers, though their execution risks vary. Bank of America says the market could grow ~101% annually through 2030. Marvell's leading DSPs and Lumentum's supply-short 200G EML lasers are lowest risk; Applied Optoelectronics' capacity expansion and Fabrinet's customer concentration make them medium risk. Aeluma remains pre-commercial, while Lightwave Logic's polymer modulators are a high-risk moonshot despite its TSM partnership. x.com
STMicroelectronics is an early turnaround story because AI infrastructure has given it a new growth engine. On June 2 it doubled its 2026 data center revenue target to about $1B, saying that could double again in 2027 if trends hold, on high-volume silicon photonics anchored by a multi-year AWS partnership. Q1 revenue rose 23% to $3.1B, it holds about $2.8B net cash, and Bank of America upgraded it to Buy, saying the market underestimates its earnings power. x.com
Credo's selloff on a raise reflects impatience, since its next growth leg is a fiscal 2028 story that begins in May 2027. It printed $479M, guided $525-535M and lifted full-year growth to more than 85%, yet sold off for a second straight print. CEO Bill Brennan called fiscal 2027 just a stepping stone for optics: OmniConnect, micro-LED cables and near-package optics turn on in fiscal 2028, when AECs step up to 1.6T. x.com x.com
STMicroelectronics offers rare asymmetry for a large cap: a bear case in line with the S&P 500, a slightly better base case and a wildly better bull case. 2026 marked an inflection in its data-center business, with a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar Amazon agreement and guidance raised from $1B before 2030 to well above $2B in 2027. A base case with a modest AI business implies 15% annual growth through 2030; if photonics, power and robotics reach a third of revenue, 30-50%. x.com x.com x.com
Aehr Test Systems has validated its burn-in thesis as bookings convert to revenue and evaluation customers move into production, with AI processor power, silicon photonics and hybrid bonding raising the value of burn-in testing. Q4 bookings rose to $60.7M from $11.1M, effective backlog reached $100.6M, twice fiscal 2026 revenue, and fiscal 2027 guidance of $130M-$150M implies 160%-200% growth. The results lead optical production and could renew momentum in the optical theme. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
X-FAB's earnings confirmed direct exposure to co-packaged optics and the 800V shift, which should drive a re-rating as markets price growth ahead. Management said it is progressing in CPO, with three silicon photonics projects and photonics volume production expected in 2028, a timeline not in revenue models yet. The 800V transition supports SiC and GaN demand, with three new SiC data center design wins pointing to a 2027 ramp. Current revenue is unimpressive, so some waiting is needed. x.com … Show more
Sivers Semiconductors is crossing from an engineering and NRE model to a product-led component model, a shift that earns very different multiples. FY2025 revenue rose 25% to SEK304.1m, product revenue reached SEK85.7m (about 28% of sales), and it entered 2026 with a $453m non-binding pipeline. Wireless is the nearer-term, more de-risked engine; photonics for AI interconnects carries larger long-duration upside. The risk is that losses and negative cash flow dilute equity before products scale. … Show more
