Wayne Liang
Asymmetric Investment Research, Trade Alerts & Toolkits
Spire Global's valuation gap should close soon, and Renaissance Technologies' Medallion Fund owning it is a reason not to bet against it. SPIR is one of very few space names the fund holds, a fund with 66% annual returns since 1988 and $35B AUM. A post the author quotes puts SPIR's $640M market cap against Satellogic's $1B, Planet Labs' $12B and Rocket Lab's $40B, noting even catching up to Satellogic would put SPIR near $30. x.comÂ
Spire Global looks early below $20 because its roughly $640 million market cap trails peers, a gap that could fill very quickly. Satellogic is valued near $1 billion, BlackSky $1.2 billion, Firefly $6 billion, Planet Labs $12 billion, AST SpaceMobile $37 billion and Rocket Lab $40 billion; merely matching Satellogic would put Spire near $30. Its $70 million offering is negligible, and Spire is fundamentally strong in a hot sector, a solid proxy for the SpaceX IPO. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Space names such as Spire Global, Sidus Space and Satellogic are getting an upward re-rating from sector-wide capital flows ahead of the SpaceX IPO. Spire is debt-free with plenty of cash after selling its maritime tracking business for a $154M gain, and it partners with NVIDIA on rapid weather forecasting models. Sidus and Satellogic are more speculative, and space as a whole is inherently riskier. x.com x.comÂ
Spire Global's $70M at-the-market raise looks insignificant, making the 10% drop on the news a chance to add. At a roughly $700M market cap, the raise is only about 10% of the company. It roughly doubles cash to about $150M to fund 50%+ core growth and government reconnaissance purchases. It remains a tiny, speculative position. x.comÂ
Spire Global looks cheap at 5x EV/sales with 50% revenue growth expected in 2026, against Planet Labs at 22x EV/sales with 40% growth. @wliang, comparing Planet Labs' $12B market cap with BlackSky's $1B and Satellogic's $700M, expects the space-imaging valuation gap could fill soon. x.comÂ
Space stocks could regain high-beta flows as SpaceX lockups end and a probable late-November Anthropic IPO threatens AI stocks, much as SpaceX's IPO hurt space names. Hedge funds are overexposed to the Magnificent Seven and underexposed or max short low-quality high beta; falling rates and toppy oil could make the rotation painful for them through 2027. AST SpaceMobile could benefit as intermittent service triggers agreements and Blue Origin possibly returns to the pad in six weeks. x.com x.comÂ
Spire Global is a pure data-as-a-service business built on radio-frequency data that cannot be captured from the ground, yet still trades at an attractive forward P/S of about 8.5x. Selling its maritime unit to Kpler for $233.5M let it retire all debt. Soil-moisture data and feeds for Nvidia's Earth-2 weather models add recurring revenue. FY2026 guidance implies 41-61% organic growth, with adjusted EBITDA breakeven targeted for Q4 2026. The $70M placement that cut the stock 20% de-risks it. … Show more
Spire Global is still cheap for its fundamentals at about a $746M market cap and roughly 8.5x forward sales. It is debt-free after the $233.5M maritime sale with $81.8M in cash, growing organic revenue 50%+, integrated with Nvidia Earth-2, expanding in agtech and targeting EBITDA breakeven in Q4 2026. As a small cap it is volatile. x.comÂ
Space stocks are a buy because big banks are buying: Morgan Stanley's space team says space is back in a big way, and Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank are buying, with large stakes in Planet Labs, AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab. Favored names include Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Redwire, Sidus Space, Satellogic, Intuitive Machines, Planet Labs, Firefly, BlackSky and Spire, with Archer and Joby as honorable mentions. x.com x.comÂ
Space names like Satellogic are worth front-running ahead of the SpaceX IPO, especially at SpaceX's roughly $1.75 trillion valuation. Capital flows into the space sector should be hot, though volatile. Satellogic says SpaceX has confirmed its upcoming launch of two NewSat Mark V satellites to expand its constellation. x.comÂ
The space economy is set to be fully ignited by SpaceX's IPO. If SpaceX's valuation reaches a trillion dollars, asset pricing across the whole space industry chain will be rewritten, from launch and space systems such as Rocket Lab and Firefly to satellite communications, space imaging, specialty materials, and defense and aerospace suppliers. What matters now is not debating whether it is a bubble but already having a seat at the table. x.comÂ
Satellogic continues to head higher as the broader space trade carries it, with space stocks showing relative strength. Its chart shows a large rounding bottom that could set up a reversal, and Golden Dome speculation adds to the case. x.comÂ
