Strategy is early below 1.5x its bitcoin net asset value, and the crowded short-Strategy, long-bitcoin trade is about to blow up, setting off short covering. Upcoming catalysts include STRC trading back at par, an Iran resolution with no rate hikes, and a momentum rotation into crypto after its underperformance relative to overpriced and crowded AI and software stocks. x.com 

Raising Strategy's STRC rate could lock common shareholders into costly dividends after sentiment improves. STRC is six times SATA's size; each 0.5-point hike costs $43m a year on existing shares, without evidence it can sustain par. Buybacks have pushed STRC toward par; as Bitcoin rises and daily payouts start, it will return to par at 12%. Reversing a hike without serious backlash may be difficult for 5-10 years. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Strategy is in the worst possible position, with Michael Saylor now down $13.7 billion, about 20%, on its bitcoin bet. STRC needs money to be rescued, and selling bitcoin to fund it would hurt both bitcoin and Strategy badly. Only a sudden sharp bitcoin rally looks able to save it. x.com 

Strategy's latest share sale sets up another bitcoin bid but keeps diluting MSTR holders until buying restarts. It sold 18.26M MSTR shares for about $2B: $136M to buy back STRC, $300M to the dividend reserve and $1.59B to a flexible cash pool that can buy bitcoin. Its BTC sale near $64K repaired the financing machine after STRC fell below $100; it was not a bearish call. Meanwhile more shares chase the same 840,447 BTC. Watch STRC reclaiming $100 (now $97) and where the $1.59B goes. x.com 

Bitcoin's near-term macro backdrop is not yet favorable because the Fed balance sheet is stuck at $6.75 trillion, so patience is warranted. The Fed will eventually have to step in for debt markets. ETF inflows leave time for October to turn positive, while Bitwise raised its 2036 target to $1.6 million and says institutions may allocate 1% to 5% as adoption and debasement-hedge demand rise. A U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may start buying very soon once crypto rules are settled. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Strategy's STRC preferred was never as safe as a money market fund, and if both STRC and MSTR share dilution fail, the only way left to pay dividends is selling bitcoin. Believing STRC would stay at par forever while paying a junk-like 12% was financial illiteracy; per @betirement, it has now fallen below $90. Strategy says its bitcoin reserve gives it 32 years of dividend coverage. x.com  x.com 

Strategy is attracting some of the world's largest fund managers because they want Bitcoin exposure. Their buying supports the bullish case for MSTR as a listed vehicle for institutional Bitcoin demand. x.com 

Bitcoin and Strategy offer an unparalleled and underappreciated setup now that the issue around Strategy's STRC preferred is largely resolved. x.com 

Strategy's STRC resembles FTX backing its books with its own tokens, and big Wall Street players are likely shorting STRC knowing Saylor will eventually have to sell bitcoin to fund the debts. That would ultimately ruin MSTR holders' trust. x.com 

Strategy is building kinetic energy by using its STRC preferred as gunpowder to corner the marginal demand for scarce bitcoin, and it seems to be working. The divergence between MSTR and bitcoin since STRC launched on July 30, 2025, highlighted in a post the author replies to, is no surprise: the two securities will never move linearly or in tandem. x.com