Veeva Systems remains a beaten-down healthcare SaaS leader that the market is pricing as if the business were broken, a view strongly disputed here. It ranks among the best risk/reward setups found in a search of beaten-down SaaS names. x.com
J Keynes
Growth Investment Research
Veeva Systems will probably be one of the first companies to deliver real AI benefits to its clients and customers. Its latest report was excellent, with growth hitting solid double digits in everything that matters, and the stock rose 6-7% after hours. The weekly chart shows possible resistance around $263. x.com
Veeva Systems looks very interesting because its market-maturity and competition risks look more than priced in. The debate over those risks is unsettled, and Salesforce is going the wrong way, to Veeva's benefit. It is unclear AI is really a risk in a high-regulatory-barrier industry like Veeva's. It trades at 14.7x free cash flow burdened by $1.2B of stock-based compensation. "Risk more than priced in" is not a thesis that works in the short term. x.com x.com
Veeva is one of the most investible SaaS names thanks to the industry it serves and its GAAP margins. Its legal battle with IQVIA appears to be over, and the two now partner in many areas, with IQVIA joining Veeva's CRO clinical data partner program. @JaredSleeper notes Veeva's 29% GAAP operating margin and $3.3B of ARR growing 16% a year. x.com
Veeva Systems looks attractive based on a deep-dive analysis by @hollertotide, described as fascinating and as alpha. x.com
CrowdStrike, Cloudflare and Shopify are priced too far ahead of reality, so incredible businesses with incredible managers can still be poor investments. If CrowdStrike reaches $7–8B of revenue and $2–3B of profit, paying $220B leaves little room for error or extraordinary returns. At stretched valuations the stock usually either falls hard or goes nowhere for years while fundamentals catch up, as happened with Veeva, Amazon, Tesla, MSCI, FICO and S&P Global. x.com
Salesforce, at the forefront of CRM for decades, is far likelier to build an even better product for the AI era than companies are to build their own CRM, making it the favorite SaaS name. The case examines what it would take for Salesforce to compound about 27% a year over the next five years. x.com x.com x.com
Braze is an AI winner the market is pricing like a loser: organic growth is accelerating, yet it trades at about 2.5 times forward sales. Revenue grew 24% year over year, another quarter of acceleration, with net retention up, bookings up 50%, and AI products generally available ahead of schedule. The bar for a public SaaS company to count as an AI winner is very high right now, but Braze is delivering the revenue acceleration the market says it wants. x.com x.com
Software valuations are at 10-year lows, with a forward PEG ratio of 1.43 that is cheaper than the S&P 500's, which looks enticing unless software is truly dead. The software ETF is at a key crossroads, still below a bearish trendline in place since October despite a 3% Friday gain; a direct breakout would likely complete the bottoming phase, though it could still pull back to form a fuller inverse head and shoulders. x.com x.com