Sherwin-Williams can earn much more as housing turnover normalizes, because its pricing power holds even while its biggest end market is broken. Paint Stores comps rose 4.2% in Q2 with existing home sales at a 4.06M pace, and FY26 EPS guidance rose to $11.80-12.20. A normal 5.3M year could add about $1.50-2 of EPS, or roughly $14 of earnings power, 24x at $330, with upside past $17 if input costs help. PPG's exit and Kelly Moore's liquidation leave it gaining pro share. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Procter & Gamble's steadily rising dividend shows why boring pays through downturns. It raised its dividend for the 70th straight year in April; the annual payment rose 5.7 times from $0.76 per share in 2001 to $4.36 today, about 7.2% a year through the dot-com crash, 2008, Covid and 2022. It returned $3.9 billion to shareholders in one quarter, while semiconductors are 27% below their high. x.com 

Sherwin-Williams looks fully valued at 24x earnings on a normalized housing market, leaving returns dependent on the multiple. Store count grows only about 2% on a 4,800 base as penetration matures; with roughly 2% comps at a 30% incremental EBITDA margin, EBITDA grows about 6%. It is a great business with low disruption risk, but higher-beta housing stocks should deliver better returns if the cycle normalizes. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Home Depot and Lowe's are the steadier way to play an eventual rate reversal because they capture both renovation money and maintenance spending that must continue no matter what. Floor & Decor has more upside but more downside if rates stay higher for longer, with no dividend support. Home Depot touched its 2023 low, a level many watch, GF Value has it cheaper than then, and its yield is the highest in years. Sherwin-Williams is a nice hybrid to add, still well above its roughly $295 lows. … Show more

Quality dividend stocks look like a great place to be over the next few years as the crowded tech trade unwinds. Per @PeterBerezinBCA, in the early dotcom bust tech crashed while the rest of the market rose, so the hedge for stocks was other stocks. A quality dividend basket holds old-economy, cash-generative businesses at sane multiples, while the index hides 50% of its weight in names at 10 times sales. That outweighs a general dislike of dividends as inefficient, taxable compounding. x.com  … Show more